In October, according to preliminary Istat estimates, inflation shows a sharp decline, falling to +1,8% annually from +5,3% recorded in September, a figure not recorded since July 2021 (+1,9%). The national consumer price index for the entire community, including tobacco, also recorded a decrease of 0,1% on a monthly basis.
October inflation in Italy: energy and food prices down
La drastic drop in the inflation rate – explains Istat – is largely due to the performance of prices of energy goods, in a marked deceleration trend due to the statistical effect deriving from the comparison with October 2022, when strong increases in prices in the sector were recorded. A contribution to the reduction in inflation is also due to the dynamics of prices of food goods, whose trend rate drops to +6,5%, putting a brake on the annual growth of shopping cart prices (+6,3%). Finally, the decline in underlying inflation is more limited, which in October stood at +4,2% (from 4,6% in September).
October inflation: energy drops, housing and transport rise
In detail, the Istat note, on the provisional data on consumer prices relating to October 2023, highlights how "the significant deceleration in the inflation rate is mainly due to the strong slowdown on a trend basis of energy prices, both unregulated (from +7,6% to -17,7%) and regulated (from -27,9% to -32,7%), and to a lesser extent the decline in unprocessed food (from +7,7% to 5,0% to +8,9%) and processed (from +7,4% to +XNUMX%). These effects are only partially offset by the acceleration in the prices of Housing related services (from +3,7% to +4,0%) and related services transport (+3,8% to +4,0%).
Core inflation falls but remains at +4,6%
Core inflation, net of energy and fresh food, also slows down (from +4,6% to +4,2%), as does that net of energy goods alone (from +4,8%, recorded in September, at +4,2%). The annual growth in the prices of goods slows down significantly (from +6,0% to +0,1%), while that of services remains stable (at +4,1%), bringing the inflationary differential between the services sector and that of goods at largely positive values (+4,0 percentage points, from -1,9 in September).
Prices are slowing down further in trend terms food goods, for home and personal care (from +8,1% to +6,3%) and those for high-frequency purchase products (from +6,6% to +5,6%).
THEinflation captured for 2023 it is equal to +5,7% for the general index and +5,1% for the underlying component.
Based on preliminary estimates, the harmonized index of consumer prices (HIPC) increases by 0,2% on a monthly basis and by 1,9% on an annual basis (a clear deceleration from +5,6% in September).
Eurozone GDP -0,1% in the third quarter, Italy has zero growth
The preliminary estimate for the third quarter published by Eurostat indicates that in third quarter GDP in the euro area it fell by 0,1% and in the EU it increased by 0,1% compared to the second when it grew in the euro area by 0,2% and in the EU it was stable. In the first quarter and fourth quarter of 2022, GDP in the euro area remained stable. The stagnation phase is thus confirmed. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, GDP increased in the euro area and in the EU by 0,1% after +0,5% in the former and +0,4% in the latter in the previous quarter.
Zero growth for Italy in the third quarter of 2023. Istat estimates that gross domestic product (GDP), expressed in chained values with the reference year 2015, corrected for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, remained stationary both compared to the previous quarter and to the third quarter of 2022. This was communicated by the statistical institute.
Updated at 12pm on 37 October 31
