Cristiano Rattazzi, son of Susanna Agnelli, is more Argentinian than Italian. He lives mainly in South America where he is the president of Fiat Argentina, as well as looking after the family interests which include a large agricultural estate.” President Kirchner's victory is beyond question. His government can boast years of good economic successes and the opposition has practically disappeared. Fiat, for example, set a production record in September at its Cordoba plant. Iveco is doing well and now CNH is planning a major investment to strengthen its presence in the country.”
Argentina has therefore not been affected by the global crisis and has continued to grow. “Two years ago – says Rattazzi – there was a moment of uncertainty but it was overcome above all thanks to the high price of soybeans which reached 530 dollars a quintal, and Argentina being the largest producer of soybeans in the world, this has represented a formidable driving force for exports and therefore a support for the entire economy. Now, however, the price has dropped to 440 dollars, still much higher than the historical average which is around 230 dollars. Then there are the export taxes on soybeans which cut back the income for farmers. The future of this country's economy will therefore depend on the evolution of the price of soybeans and, given the great disorder in the world economy, it is not easy to make reliable forecasts."
The International Monetary Fund and several independent research institutes maintain that inflation is not 10 percent as internal statistics say, but almost double. In the coming months, this will impose major constraints on any policies to support the economic situation, should they be necessary. In addition, the devaluation of its currency by Brazil, which brought the real from 1,5 to 1,9 against the dollar, poses a competitiveness problem for Argentina.
“There are indeed some clouds on the horizon that will require very careful management by the new economy minister who will change because the current one will become vice president. With inflation high enough and which will be supported by the inevitable adjustments in energy tariffs, it will not be possible to follow an exchange rate policy similar to that of Brazil which can afford to see its inflation increase by a few points, which was around 5 per cent. hundred. The devaluation of Brazil is certainly a bad blow for Argentine competitiveness considering that over 80 percent of its exports are directed to Brazil.”
In other words, some of the global crisis risks affecting Argentina as well, which however is a land of great resources and which in recent years has also seen the birth of a sector of modern technologies.
“Certainly the president – concludes Rattazzi – is very projected towards the future. She encourages the diffusion of new technologies and all productions connected to the new economy. However, some of the international conditions that have driven the country's economy in recent years are changing and lead to greater uncertainty. It will therefore be necessary to be aware that with the less favorable wind it will be necessary to choose the right policies to maintain a high growth rate as has happened in past years.”
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