The World Bank has revised downwards estimates of global growth in 2013, from the 3% previously forecast to 2,4%, a figure slightly better than that of 2012. The ongoing battles over the US budget weigh more on the revision of the estimate than the European crisis.
the United States, in fact, is expected to grow by 1,9%, but we must bear in mind the risk of a recession if the tax cuts foreseen in early March materialize. In that case, the US economy would contract by 0,4%, reducing global growth by 1,4 percentage points. Instead, the regression in the Eurozone should continue: estimates speak of a drop of 0,1%.
Growth in emerging countries has also been revised downwards from 5,9% to 5,5%, while commodity prices appear destined to fall. According to Kaushik Basu, chief economist of the World Bank, 2013 will be "a risky year".
