Spain goes to the polls today and the most probable result is a victory for the centre-right. A return therefore to the Moncloa of the popular after about 8 years of socialist reign. An alternation that is due, if confirmed by the vote, to the current economic crisis and to the fact that the outgoing premier, Josè Luis Zapatero, reacted late and weakly to the crisis, preferring social issues to economic issues (marriage between homosexuals, the decriminalization of abortion, equality between men and women, quick divorce, historical memory).
The polls therefore take for granted the victory of the "grey" Mariano Rajoy, the eternal loser of Spanish politics. Aznar's successor was in fact beaten by Zapatero, both in 2004 and in 2008 and he would have risked this time too if the Socialists hadn't heavily deserved of being re-elected over the last 3 years. However, it will be interesting to see if a "round" victory will emerge from the polls, that is to say with a large absolute majority in the lower house, or if it will be narrow as some analysts have indicated in recent weeks.
The slogan of the PP "Join the change" is certainly effective, but everything remains to be verified. Rajoy's program summarized in 100 points (not a few) is in fact a mixture of liberalism, austerity, labor reform, aid to businesses, cuts to the public apparatus and economic revival, certainly commendable, but not easy to implement. Especially as regards the employment chapter, if we take into account the fact that Spain has an unemployment rate of 21% with 5 million unemployed.
On the other hand, the socialist candidate Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba, one of the most esteemed and experienced politicians on the Spanish scene, was wrong (if we can speak of wrong) in presenting himself after the disastrous Zapatero management and therefore with a Spain that is asking aloud a change: political and economic. There is therefore little chance that the former number two in the Government and former Minister of the Interior will make it. He will therefore lead the opposition, a responsible opposition that will certainly support the new government in the difficult mission of relaunching the country.
However, 2011 in Spain will remain well engraved in the country's recent democratic history: certainly due to the economic crisis (in the third quarter, Spanish GDP remained substantially flat) and the financial one (see the banking crisis), which led the country one step away from "default", waiting to negotiate a package of support measures with the EU in case of urgent need. But also for other significant episodes: the definitive reconciliation with the ETA terrorists at the end of more than thirty years of bloody attacks; the demonstration of the "indignados" which forced Prime Minister Josè Luis Zapatero to call elections six months in advance of the natural expiry of the legislature at the beginning of last summer.
In short, Spain has given all of Europe lessons of democracy, of great maturity and seriousness. Such as to deserve the applause of Brussels, but also in some way of the markets if we consider that at the beginning of the year the differential with the German bund was much higher than the Italian one and is now not much higher than that of the Bel Paese.
As we said, there are still many problems to solve: growth and employment above all, but also how to get out of a real estate crisis that has literally brought the country to its knees and "spliced" the banks with assets and credits that are difficult to recover in the short term. This is the equation that the new premier of Spain, designated by the popular vote on Sunday, will have to solve in order to make a change and avoid a new contagion. And the simple alternation of Government, in itself, is certainly not enough. As if to say that the next few weeks will be crucial for understanding whether the new prime minister will have sufficient support from Parliament and a firm hand to guide the change.
