Mario Draghi's trip to Algeria on the eve of the parliamentary clarification on the government crisis directly affects the near future of the country's energy emergency but also that of our energy companies. The agreements will have direct effects on the ignition of our boilers next winter, but also on the activity of key companies for the Italian economy such as Enel, Eni e Saipem.
Italian companies in which the direct or indirect share of the state is decisive, are under pressure after the Government crisis triggered last week by resignation, for now frozen, of Prime Minister Mario Draghi. The fear is that i dossier keys still open with the decisive participation of the government, could be shelved or worse yet trashed if there were to be a changing of the guard at Palazzo Chigi that pays little attention to the country's emergencies after the ever-closer general elections.
Energy companies in the spotlight: key agreement in Algeria
In this period of serious energy crisis, the Italian companies that deal with this sector are the ones most in the spotlight since they constitute the possible way out of dependence on Russia. Last July 11th Gazprom it has cut off gas supplies (officially for maintenance) until next Thursday and the markets are holding their breath for fears that the Kremlin may decide not to reopen the pipeline or to turn the tap only partially.
Algeria therefore it becomes, at least for the time being, the real one alternative to Russia and this is the reason why Draghi, although he resigned, went yesterday to the meeting in Algiers which was attended not only by the competent ministers but also by the companies involved: on the one hand Sonotrach, the local public giant, on the other our key company in the energy sector. The understanding had been signed in April between Eni and Sonatrach to immediately increase gas flows by 3 billion cubic metres, while yesterday Sonatrach's decision was announced for another increase to six billion cubic metres, until the end of 2022, of direct flow of gas to our country. With yesterday's agreements, Algeria becomes Italy's top gas supplier.
The Eni stock on the stock exchange, which was steadily recovering above 11 euros up to 11,25 euros last Wednesday, on the day of Draghi's resignation (rejected by the president Sergio Mattarella) it fell to 10,64 euros. Today, in the wake of the Algerian agreements, it is attempting to recover and yesterday evening it was at 11,01 euros, up by 1,62%.
Enel, also an interested party in the agreements, but more secluded, had regained levels above 5 euros in recent weeks, but on the day of the resignation it fell to 4,84 euros and yesterday evening it was listed at 4,91 euros, down by 1,82 % due to the detachment of the 2022 dividend, for an amount of 0,19 euro.
The situation is even more delicate Saipem, controlled by Eni and Cassa depositi e prestiti with 44%, which could take advantage of the agreements organized by the Draghi government in Algeria with projects for new gas pipelines across the Sahara.
Only last Friday Saipem closed a complicated operation of capital increase of 2 billion, about 30% subscribed by the guarantee syndicate banks who have communicated their intention to keep only 10% and to put the remaining 20% back on the market.
Il Saipem title on Friday it lost 30% to 0,82 euros, below the conversion price of 1,013 euros, after it was quoted at 3,7 euros at the beginning of last week. Yesterday it was quoted at 0,76 euros, down by 7,07%. Saipem has just signed new offshore drilling contracts in the Middle East and West Africa for a total of over 400 million dollars which should start at the end of this year.
Public participants with bated breath: Mps and Tim
But it's not just companies in the energy sector who don't know what their fate will be, with the government crisis.
Il Monte dei Paschi di Siena, of which the MEF owns 64,23%, it lost 7% on the stock market following the news of Draghi's resignation and another almost 6% on Friday. Yesterday evening it was at 0,44 euro, up by 3,18%.
CEO Luigi Lovaglio's project to restructure and sell the bank to private entities, in agreement with the ECB and the EU, is open on the table of the Sienese bank. A capital increase to 2,5 billion is scheduled for the autumn. Lovaglio, who will present the interim report in August, it is true that he will have the support of a pool of banks (BofA, Citigroup, Credit Suisse and Mediobanca as Joint Global Coordinators of the operation), but he also underlined the importance of the presence of the government: "Thanks to the support of the MEF we feel supported across the board".
Other hot file is that of the digital transition in which Telecom Italy is the main actor and consequently also the Italian government through CDP which holds 9,81%, as well as having control of Open Fiber.
At the beginning of July, the CEO Pietro Labriola outlined the plan for a new Tim which will be the result of the division between services (ServCo) and network (NetCo). An approach that will also be functional to the Rete Unica operation with the creation of a company into which Tim's infrastructural assets will flow together with an Open Fiber 60%-controlled by CDP (which is 83% owned by the Treasury and which Tim is also a 10% shareholder and 40% by Macquarie. A very complex puzzle in which the role of an efficient government will be decisive.
Yesterday CDP sources told Ansa that the confrontation between the parties continues, despite the government crisis, emphasizing that the outline of the operation's perimeter is currently underway. But some observers fear some shock at the top of the Cassa. The Telecom Italia stock in the last 5 days it has lost 11,85% and yesterday it was quoted unchanged at 0,23 euro.
Good performance from Fincantieri and Leonardo
On the other hand, two companies with the Mef brand maintain a good performance on the stock market, Fincantieri e Leonardo, of which, moreover, we speak of cross agreements.
The first, of which CDP has over 71%, has recently been focusing on cruise ships, but negotiations remain open around the world, the latest with Greece and Qatar. According to some sources, the new CEO Pierroberto Folgiero is considering a capital increase of around 2 billion.
In the last 5 days Fincantieri has lost "only" 0,96% and in any case has remained almost unchanged in the last month. Yesterday it was quoted at 0,57 euros, up 0,89%.
Certainly the best performance in times of war comes from those who produce tools used in this area. It is the case of Leonardo-Finmeccanica, of which the MEF has 30,2%, which continues to collect agreements around the world.
The latest concerns Drs, the US subsidiary of Leonardo Drs, which has signed a binding agreement with Rada Electronic Industries for the merger of Rada into Leonardo Drs. Rada is a supplier of advanced software-defined military tactical radars, already listed on the Nasdaq and in Tel Aviv and, upon completion of the transaction, expected by the end of the year, DRS will also be listed on both lists.
Leonardo on the Milan Stock Exchange has gained 2,53% in the last month and has lost only 5% in the last 0,14 days. Yesterday evening it was at 9,96 euros, up by 0,77%.
The risk of board appointments
The other theme that will emerge in the coming months will be that of the new ones board appointments of the MEF investee companies, which will obviously have the imprinting of the new government.
Next year will be the crucial one as key positions for Italian companies and the economy expire: in April it will be the turn of Ita (Italy by air transport), Poste Italiane, Eni and Mps. In June Enel and Leonardo
The other open dossiers, from the Pnrr to the tax reform
With the resignation of Premier Draghi, many fundamental dossiers for the future of the country would risk running aground. From gas to cutting the tax wedge, to funds for Pnrr. With regard to the latter, a total of 191,5 billion have been allocated for Italy. In June, the government achieved the 45 objectives established by the Pnrr for the first half of 2022, releasing 11,5 billion in grants and 12,6 billion in loans. Another 21 billion are planned after the summer.
Among other files there are those that concern the tax wedge, The competition law, tax reform.
Crisis and spread widening go hand in hand, and debt increases
In all of this there is the behavior of investors towards Italian government bonds.
The bogeyman over the Italian debt is back, which translates into the flooding of the markets spread, the yield differential between the yields of Italian and German ten-year government bonds.
In the last week it spread has widened up to 236 bps and was at 223 bps last night.
Even if far away never worst moments (in the 2018 crisis it had risen to 323 bps and around 500 bps in 2011-2012), Equita Sim calculated that for every 100 basis points of increase in the spread, interest spending would rise on average by 2,5 billion next year, by 6,7 billion in 2024 and by 10,1 billion in 2025. The Italian debt last May it amounted to 2.756 billion euros, down by 3,5 billion on the previous month, but up by 69 billion on a year earlier.
