Round and round the most current question is always the same. Will the 5 Star-League government, born to last at least until next year's European elections, eat panettone? If it weren't a terribly serious matter it could become a fun party game. In fact, the contradictions and difficulties of the "impossible agreement" between Di Maio and Salvini seem to multiply and internal differences, such as that on pensions, take on a substantially antithetical character, while Italy risks being isolated within the EU and, above all, exposed to being the target of the "spread". The undoubted successes obtained by Matteo Salvini on the containment of migratory flows (also the result of the previous work of Marco Minniti who paradoxically suffered the ostracism of part of the PD) have alarmed the Movement of Casaleggio and Grillo who fear the tarnishing of their identity in the face to an electorate that, especially where the 5 stars have won votes, expects promises to be kept.
Since in a coalition government the problems of each of the allies sooner or later become common, it is increasingly difficult for Salvini and Di Maio to implement the government contract and respond to the interests and expectations of their electoral bases, without entering the trap of the Agencies of ratings. What happened with Fitch is just the appetizer. Minister Giovanni Tria (the most authoritative exponent of the "quirinali" component of the government), setting the deficit bar at 1,5 of GDP, will try to obtain a 10 million euro "discount" from the EU which will hardly be enough to guarantee the stated objectives in terms of Citizenship Income, the reform of the "Fornero Law" and the "flat tax". Moreover, critical issues emerge in some Northern Regions governed by the League with centre-right majorities. In Liguria it is not possible to give the go-ahead for the reconstruction of the collapsed bridge, in Lombardy the dispute between the Region and the State Railways (5Stelle-powered) for the reorganization and rehabilitation of the public transport network is far from resolved local while in Veneto the wounds of the "Dignity Decree" that have aroused the revolt of an entrepreneurial world that has always supported the authoritative Northern League Governor Zaia have not yet healed.
We are facing a scenario in which the number of variables exceeds that of equations making it impossible to solve the system. Not to mention the "nationalisations" (primarily Alitalia and Autostrade), the Ilva of Taranto, the Tav and the Apulian TAP gas pipeline. The thread has become very tangled and it becomes difficult to unravel it: finding reasonable solutions to every open question will be a tiring exercise. The aid that could come from external "friends" (who could turn out to be incompatible with each other) such as China and the USA will certainly not be enough. This does not mean that a government crisis, although currently possible, is also probable. Not only because the "spoil system" for the new majority is still ongoing, but because of the very uncertain prospects that would follow the resignation of the Conte government. A new edition of a 5Stelle-Lega government is difficult, a new majority is almost impossible, and equally unlikely that the President of the Republic will entrust the management of the elections to the outgoing government. In essence, the ghost of Cottarelli or Draghi would reappear.
[smiling_video id="62427″]
[/smiling_video]
In this scenario, Di Maio would run the greatest risks but some big problems would also arise for Salvini who, while collecting the dividends of his activity as Minister of the Interior, could hardly reach the coveted 40% threshold if not by rebuilding an alliance centre-right within which he would be asked to cede leadership and to negotiate on the programme. All this pushes the current government allies to avoid dangerous waters that could amount to both the expulsion of Adam and Eve from the Garden of Eden. It is therefore better to postpone demanding decisions that could cause irreparable ruptures, to mediate in search of compromises (soothe,sleep….) that give everyone the idea of partial success, use the once despised gradualism. The Taranto steelworks could turn out to be an unexpected success: the tender, in the opinion of Minister De Maio, would have illegitimacy profiles, but with additional commitments on environmental issues and guaranteeing employment for all current employees, the accounts could come together. The union, which (rightly) requests an answer for all workers of Ilva and related industries could ultimately prove to be a very useful ally.
Moreover, even though a few months have passed since the recent elections, there remains an evident weakness of the oppositions which seem to be chasing after the government majority in the (until now) vain attempt to widen its contradictions. Before lacking a credible program, both the Democratic Party and Forza Italia appear to lack a clear political and cultural identity. Proof of this is the fact that the only real (credible) alternative proposal to that of the 5Stelle on a topic such as that of social security reform came from Alberto Brambilla, an authoritative scholar considered close to the League. It would be interesting to know what the opposition thinks of this proposal.
