For the moment, Italy has not disavowed its tendency to be inhabited mostly by the elderly. The natural balance of the population is strongly negative. The births are in further decline (-1,9%), but with slight signs of recovery in the South. I deaths still remain at high levels, also due to the increase recorded in the summer months due to excessive heat. Movements are on the rise migratory, compared to the years of the pandemic, also due to the effects of the war in Ukraine: there are 360.685 registrations in the registry office from abroad. Since 2018, the population decline has been around one million people.
Taking a picture of the demographic trend in Italy is the latest report of theIstat which notes that as of 31 December last, the resident population was around 179 fewer than at the beginning of the year, despite the positive contribution of the migratory balance with foreign countries.
Demographic crisis: the aftermath of the pandemic
As of December 31, 2022, the resident population in Italy it amounts to 58.850.717 units, -179.416 compared to the same date in 2021 (-0,3%). If in the two-year period 2020-2021 the demographic dynamics was mainly influenced by the consequences of the effects of the Covid-19 epidemic, after two years the demographic dynamics returns the image of a population balance still disturbed by the aftermath of the pandemic.
The loss of population recorded in the first quarter is, in fact, equal to 83 thousand units, a good 46,4% of the decrease achieved in the whole year. The next further drop in births andexcess mortality of the summer months, linked to the persistent heat waves, have further aggravated the natural dynamics.
Migratory movements on the rise
Again Istat points out that the recovery of international migratory movements (partly due to the effects of the crisis in Ukraine) produces positive effects, contributing to the slowdown of the population deficit. You register the resurgence of migratory movements from abroad, emigrations are decreasing. In 2022, registrations from abroad amounted to 360.685 while there were 131.869 cancellations for abroad, figures that determine a foreign migration balance of +228.816 (+3,9 per thousand residents).
Population deficit in geographical areas
Looking at the various geographical areas, the population deficit slows down to North part and gets worse in Noon. In the North, the decrease was -0,1%, much smaller than the previous year (-0,4% in 2021). Even in the Centre, the decline in population is more contained (-0,3% against -0,5% in 2021). The South, on the other hand, suffers more pronounced effects, going from -0,2% in 2021 to -0,6% in 2022.
New negative record for births
As for births, in 2022 there were therefore 392.598 births, 7.651 fewer than in 2021 (-1,9%), a new negative record which accentuates the drop in the birth rate in recent years. If the trend in births in 2021 has left little doubt on the role played by the epidemic in relation to failed conception, the dynamics underlying 2022 are more complex. The context of health crisis still present in 2021 and the consequent economic uncertainties they may have encouraged couples to once again postpone their plans to become parents.
The trends in the different quarters
The increase in births recorded in January 2022 (+3,4% compared to the same month of 2021) is in line with the recovery observed in the two-month period November-December 2021 (+10,6% compared to the same period of 2020).
A sudden drop in births follows spring (-10,7% in March and -10,0% in April), only partly compensated by the increase in the June-August quarter (+3,1%). In the last months of the year the trend returns to a downward trend with peaks of strong contraction in the months of September and October (-5,1% and -5%).
The birth rate at a territorial and European level
For territorial there is a slight recovery in the South: the birth rate, equal to 6,7 per thousand residents on a national average in 2022, once again confirms the primacy of the autonomous province of Bolzano with 9,2 per thousand, while Sardinia has the lowest value: 4,9 per thousand.
For European, the situation recorded in our country is not an exception, finding points of contact both with Spain, which is characterized by a profile similar to ours, and with France which, despite reporting historically higher fertility levels, in 2022 however, it recorded a decline especially starting from the month of July.
