A GDP that grows by more than 4%, a low cost of labor - including skilled ones - which attracts a massive influx of foreign investments, new shale gas fields which could guarantee energy self-sufficiency in the short term - as well as further reducing production costs . We are not in an emerging South American country, nor in one of the dynamic African or Asian developing states, but in neighboring Poland. The economic-financial crisis, as well as the political one, which is putting the richest and most developed nations of the European Union in difficulty and which is leading peripheral countries, such as Greece and Portugal, to risk default on their public debt - after years beyond its means – it has not affected everyone. In fact, Poland has managed to maintain a positive performance that combines economic growth with substantial compliance with macroeconomic fundamentals: a sign that it is possible to respect the Maastricht parameters without necessarily having to slip into stagnation.
Poland, governed by centre-right prime minister Donald Tusk and outgoing president of the EU, ended 2011 with an increase in GDP of 4,3% and it is assumed that this year growth will be in the order of 2,5%: a substantial decrease, but one that should nonetheless be considered positive in the European context which forecasts a recession – or, in the best cases, growth close to zero – for its most important states. Forecasts even more positive if we consider that the central-eastern European nation is heavily dependent on neighboring economies in terms of investments and exports. The public debt-to-GDP ratio is substantially stable at the level of 56,7%, therefore perfectly within the "precepts" established twenty years ago by the Treaty on the European Union and a few weeks ago "dusted off" by the rules of the Fiscal Compact. Labor costs are among the lowest in Europe (7,46 euros per hour in 2010 according to Eurostat) and is one of the reasons that have allowed us to attract growing flows of foreign investment.
As in many photographs, however, there is no lack of light-dark contrast. The international situation, which has seen the Old Continent as one of the most suffering geo-economic areas, has not left Warsaw completely immune. Inflation has risen from 2% to more than 4%, beyond the objectives that the Polish central bank had set itself. Along with it is unemployment also increased, which underwent a new growth to reach 10% again in November 2011. The per capita income still remains one of the lowest in Europa (just under ten thousand euros, fifth from bottom in the EU). The corruption, after the end of Communism, it decreased significantly: the index elaborated by Transparency International places Poland in 41st place in the world, well above Italy. Yet it is still perceived as a serious problem and just a few days ago the Institute of Public Affairs, one of the main think-tanks in the country, published a study which underlines the absence of policies expressly aimed at combating corruption.
It is certain that Poland is strategically located in the heart of Europe, which makes it a coveted country. With its over 38 million inhabitants, it constitutes an internal market of workers and consumers that offers very attractive growth prospects for those intending to invest.
Interesting possibilities in this sense could soon open up in a new sector, namely that energetic. Dependent on Russia, which has made it a new tool of geopolitical influence, to meet its natural gas needs, Poland has begun to pursue a strategy of diversification of supply sources in the last two years. In fact, it is estimated that Poland possesses up to 1,5 trillion cubic meters of shale gas (methane contained in shale rocks located about one and a half kilometers deep in the earth's crust): in the last three years around a hundred exploration concessions to several oil companies, such as Exxon-Mobil and Chevron. The exploitation of these resources, if their availability were to be confirmed, could open up very interesting prospects in the medium term at a geopolitical level, making Poland a stronger player vis-à-vis Russia, and at an economic level due to the reduction of energy and production costs .
Italy did not stand by and economic relations with Warsaw intensified rapidly. Poland is our country's tenth "customer" in terms of exports, with an increase of 10,9% between November 2010 and November 2011: the most purchased goods are machinery and components, chemical products, iron and steel and, obviously, cars. In this regard, one cannot fail to mention Fiat as the main Italian company in terms of investments: the Tychy plant is strategic for the Turin car manufacturer, which between 1993 and 2007 consolidated invested capital of 1,2 billion euro. Marcegaglia, Indesit, Brembo, Agusta Westland and Astaldi Group are the other large Italian companies to invest in Poland, but there are also several smaller businesses. As for the banking sector UniCredit since 1999 it has controlled Banca Pekao, the main Polish credit group with over five million customers and nine thousand branches spread throughout the country.
In June, Poland together with neighboring Ukraine, will host the European football championship. One more reason that has made it possible to attract investments, especially in terms of infrastructure, and to give "gas" to GDP (an effect of 1,5% is estimated). The sports event will also be an opportunity to score "goals" in front of the eyes of the whole continent and to demonstrate that you can be a virtuous example of integration into the EU market. A reliable partner, capable of becoming increasingly strategic in the coming years also for Italy.
