The European debt crisis and the slowdown of the two largest world economies, the United States and China, have not left Latin America indifferent. Growth estimates for 2012 for the region have been revised downwards to 3,2% from 3,7% expected in June. And most of the countries will obtain results that are not very different from 2011. These are the data that emerge from the latest report of the United Nations Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, ECLAC.
The growth, which averages between 3,5% and 5,5% and is mainly based on consumption and investment, was reflected in an improvement in activities in non-commercial sectors such as the domestic and the manufacturer. Analysts also reveal that in the South American continent, inflation continues to follow a downward trend but is threatened by the increase in the prices of basic foods.
Il Mexico, like other Central American countries, they will benefit from a modest rise in US economic activity e will grow by 4% both this year and next.
Il Perù it is the country which, after the unbeatable Panama (+9,5% expected for 2012), will grow the most on the continent. For Lima it is estimated a GDP increase of 5,9% this year and 5,5% next year. Follow Chile, Costa Rica and Venezuela which will grow by 5% in 2012, but they will slow down in 2013: in fact, the future of economies specialized in the production and export of commodities will greatly depend on the performance of Asian countries, the main destination markets for these goods, and on the impact that the drop in commodity prices will have on their accounts .
Male the numbers of Brazil and Argentina, the two countries that have the greatest weight in the area. Buenos Aires' GDP will drop from 9% last year to 2%. While Brazil, which had already begun to slow down in 2011, will not grow more than 2012% in 1,6. To fare worse than Brazil, only the paraguay, in which it is expected a GDP down by 2%.
Expectations for 2013 are not rosy. On the contrary. Many countries will see even slower growth, especially economies that are heavily dependent on commodity exports to China. Countries that exploit tourism will do better in the Caribbean. Argentina and Brazil should finally see a little light to achieve regional growth of 4% in 2013.
