"Strengthening the euro is an ambitious but achievable goal, to be pursued step by step". So expressed Angela Merkel yesterday, on the sidelines of the bilateral summit in Berlin with the French President, Nicolas Sarkozy. For months, the Chancellor has had to deal with, on the one hand, the criticisms coming from abroad, according to which she lacks the necessary Europeanism to resolve the crisis and, on the other, with the internal criticisms of her constituents, according to which the executive it would have already conceded far too much to the other Member States, including France. After the resolution of the European Council in December on the so-called Fiscal Compact, yesterday's summit served to further speed up the times for the entry into force of the envisaged measures. By the end of January, the heads of state and government should in fact sign the international treaty valid for the EMU and for some EU countries. However, there is no agreement on the scope of application of the Tobin Tax. Although Merkel and Sarkozy have once again declared themselves in favour, skepticism in Germany for a tax that certainly does not touch the roots of the current crisis is increasing day by day, especially at the Bundesbank. According to the German media, the liberals of the FDP, allies of the Chancellor, are still against the tax, even if in reality in May 2010 the liberal parliamentary group voted in favor of him. Last week the Finance Minister himself, Wolfgang Schäuble, said he was ready to apply it even if there was no agreement from his European colleagues. Now it seems that Mrs. Merkel has (again) reconsidered.
However, as several German economists suggest in a joint interview with the economic weekly Wirtschaftswoche, the solution to the crisis passes above all through other ways and the Tobin Tax is a weapon of mass distraction. Firstly, the Fiscal Compact does not do enough in the short term. For Stefan Schilbe, the chief economist of HSBC in Germany, alongside the consolidation rules, it is now urgent to implement a firewall capable of withstanding the shock wave of the coming months. The entry into force of the ESM, the vehicle that should help countries in difficulty to refinance themselves without too much difficulty, has already been brought forward to the middle of this year. But in the meantime the EFSF is struggling to take off. Investors are hesitant about unspecified guarantees from Member States. According to Professor Hans-Joachim Voth, also interviewed by the weekly Wirtschaftswoche, the emphasis hitherto placed on the saving obligation of peripheral countries is excessive. “These are highly pro-cyclical measures. It makes no sense for Italy to approve such a maneuver” also said the social democrat Peter Bofinger, one of the five economic wise men who advise the executive. “The only institution that can give a clear signal to the markets is the ECB, which should show itself willing to buy government bonds in unlimited quantities”, Schilbe continues. A sign of the fact that the German attitude is about to change is also given by the soothing words of the newly elected German member at the Eurotower, Jörg Asmussen, according to whom the governing council should no longer appear divided externally. The implicit criticisms of the furious attacks of the last few months by the Weber and Stark hawks are clear. For his part, Michael Hüther, director of the Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft in Cologne (IW) and one of the staunchest supporters of savings packages in the PIIGS, considers the hypothesis of a Greek exit harmful, above all for the German economy and for its export industry. Let's not talk about the German idea of abandoning the euro: "We should say goodbye to all the progress of the last ten years", concludes Schilbe.
Giovanni Boggero writes about Germany for Il Foglio, Il Riformista and Aspenia.
