The threat of anti-Russian sanctions after the Crimean referendum and the new increase in the Chinese renmimbi fluctuation band from 1 to 2 percent affect the start of the week in Asia and suggest a rough start in Europe as well. Share prices are weak, starting with Tokyo and Hong Kong which limit losses below one percentage point.
The yen climbs back to 101, one step away from the record against the dollar (100,80). Even the euro crosses the level of 1,39 again. Finally, the yuan slipped to 6,1584 in Shanghai (18-month low) but was worth 6,1524 on the parallel market in Hong Kong. Bank if America has cut its forecast for China's 2014 GDP growth to 7,3%.
The slowdown in China is the most worrying note for the financial markets. But, in the short term, tension dominates due to the financial tug of war between the West and Putin's Russia. At the end of December, Russian investments in US T bonds amounted to 138 billion dollars, already down to 105 according to initial estimates. In exchange, between January and February 33 billion dollars in March. Western investments in Moscow have already been repatriated, a figure which, according to the Russian investment bank Renaissance, will rise to 55 billion by the end of March.
It is in this framework that the Federal Reserve's Monetary Committee will meet tomorrow and Wednesday and, barring surprises, should proceed with a new cut in market interventions. According to a study by Nomura, the meeting, the first under Yellen's presidency and after Stanley Fischer's appointment as deputy, will mark a significant change of pace: less emphasis on unemployment, now close to the 6,5% target, and more attention to inflation dangerously below the 2% target.
Attention today will be focused on the industrial production data of the Empire index, relating to the Eastern states. The most important European statistic concerns February inflation.
UNIPOLSAI RECEIVES 440 MILLION FROM THE MILAN PORTFOLIO
UnipolSai sold assets formerly belonging to Milano Assicurazioni to Allianz Italia on Saturday evening for up to €440m: a non-life portfolio of €1,1bn, managed by a network of 729 agencies and 500 employees for whom the Belgian Aegeas had offered 300 million. On Friday, the company's stock suffered a drop of 2,78% accused by the Bologna-based group's stock on the eve of the agreement. However, a title that has grown by 60% since the end of the summer and by 27% since the beginning of 2014.
GENERALI, THE FT LIKES THE GREEK CYCLIST
Mario Greco receives the praise of the Financial Times ("the action of the cyclist at the top of the company - we read - bodes well for the Italian recovery"), announces the forthcoming sale of the Telco stake (already devalued to 0,72 euro) probably already in July. Now the market spotlights are concentrated on the sale that has proved to be the most problematic: the Banca della Svizzera Italiana. In this regard, contacts with the Swiss bank Julius Baer have been resumed.
ENI, THE TIME OF ACCOUNTS
This morning the six-legged dog communicates the data of the 2013 financial statements. The consensus average shows hold with a target price of 18,5 euros. On March 7, Fitch confirmed Eni's rating at A+, with a negative outlook. According to the agency, the volatility of production in Libya and the accumulated delays in the Kashagan field are weighing on the Italian oil group, which could hinder the performance of the upstream strategy in the coming years. Added to this are the tensions in Crimea with the fallout on the investment in the South Stream gas pipeline. Meanwhile, Saipem has won a contract for the first line of four of the South Stream gas pipeline that will carry methane from Siberia to Europe under the Black Sea, bypassing Ukraine. Among the other appointments of the week, the start of the dividend campaign. It begins on March 21 with Bb Biotech (7 Swiss francs).
IPO WALL STREET, ALIBABA COMES FROM CHINA
The Chinese web giant, Alibaba, confirmed over the weekend that it had chosen Wall Street. “Alibaba Inc – reads the announcement on the group's website – has decided to start the IPO process in the United States”. It was not specified whether the listing will take place on the Nyse or the Nasdaq. It's easy to predict a bitter battle to win the deal of the century: Alibaba's IPO is worth at least 20 billion dollars (historic record) for an initial capitalization of 150 billion dollars (another all-time record for a freshman). The Chinese group based in Hangzhou has long surpassed Amazon.com as the largest company in the world in the online sales sector. Sales that in 2013 amounted to about 240 billion dollars, compared to 100 billion dollars for Amazon. The reaction was immediate in Tokyo by Softbank +5,2%, which holds 36,7% of the e-commerce giant (24% is controlled by Yahoo!). Wei In addition to Alibaba, Weibo, the Chinese Twitter, will also arrive on Wall Street, little known in the rest of the world but which can already count on 129 million users (against Twitter's 241 million). The intention in this case is to place 500 million dollars worth of shares in the United States.
IPO ITALY, THE SOUL OPERATION HAS BEEN STARTED
The pre-marketing of the Anima Holding IPO begins this morning and will begin on Monday 17 March. The offer will concern over 50% of the capital (probable 55%) while the greenshoe will be equal to a maximum of 15% offered. The sellers are Mps, Pop Milano, Lauro Quarantadue (entirely controlled by Clessidra SGR on behalf of the Clessidra Capital Partners II fund) and Prima Holding 2 (owned by Lauro 42, Mps and some managers of the Anima Group). According to the company website, Clessidra controls 37%, Bpm 35,3%, Mps 22,7%. In the announcement note of the filing, the company underlined that MPS and Pop Milano will remain the reference shareholders even after the conclusion of the listing process. The coordinators of the global offer are Goldman Sachs, Banca IMI and UniCredit Corporate & Investment Banking which, together with UBS Investment Bank, will also act as joint bookrunners.
BANKS, AFTER THE INCREASES THE INCREASES
Will the spring of Italian banks continue? At least two elements give him hope: 1) attention to Intesa's business plan, which will be unveiled on 28 March; 2) the wait for the next operations, starting from the solution of the Monte Paschi puzzle, less difficult after the increases on the market.
FLOWERS AS A GIFT TO MONTE PASCHI
Monte Paschi's share closed on Friday up 2% to 0,2316 euro, confirming itself as the best blue chip of the week (+10% against -1% of the FtseMib index). Crédit Suisse analysts raised the stock's recommendation to Neutral from Underperform. Meanwhile, the possible buyers of the 20% package put up for sale by the Foundation are looming. The most accredited name is that of Jc Flowers, the US investment company that should lead a pool of investors, including the private equity firm Blackstone. At current prices, 20% is worth around 513 million, more than enough for the Foundation to repay its exposure with the banks.
UNICREDIT TOWARDS THE SALE OF PIONEER
The week of the presentation of the business plan with adjustments and write-downs for 14,1 billion closed with a positive balance of 6% which compares with the -1% recorded by the FtseMib index. From the communications to Consob it emerged that the BlackRock funds have risen to 5,25% of the capital from the previous 2,2% thus becoming the second shareholder of the bank led by Federico Ghizzoni. The operation dates back to March 5th. Meanwhile Kepler Cheuvreux confirmed the Hold recommendation, raising the target price to 6,4 euros from the previous 5,80 euros. The Financial Times online revealed this morning that the bank has put in the pipeline the sale (or, alternatively, the IPO) of Pioneer, the asset management company of the group for a value between 2 and 3 billion euros.
BPM BEST EUROPEAN TITLE
Banca Popolare di Milano closed up again on Friday, it is among the few positive stocks on a stock market in sharp decline. This morning Bank of America Merrill Lynch raised its recommendation to Neutral from Underperform of the euro area. Other banks stand out due to the interest they arouse among investors and analysts Among these are Banca Ifis (closing at parity at 600 euro) after Consobb communications revealed that Invesco bought 51% of Banca Ifis as part of the business of savings management. The operation dates back to March 13,63 last year. The US manager thus becomes the second shareholder after La Scogliera, the reference shareholder of the Veneto banking group with 3%. A few months ago, La Scogliera placed 10% of the capital at 56,68 euros per share.
Also in evidence is Carige, +2,24% to 0,57 euro on the wave of the resumption of negotiations for the sale of the bank's insurance business. If the disposals materialize quickly, according to some experts, the bank could also decide to reduce the amount of the planned capital increase up to a maximum of 800 million euros The Cassa di Risparmio di Genova e Imperia Foundation sold shares in February Banca Carige equal to approximately 0,88% of the capital. Between December 2013 and last month, the institution sold a total of approximately 1,47% of Banca Carige's capital. The Foundation's share fell to 45,1%.
A WEEK IN RED FOR BAGS
The S&P 500 fear index, the Vix, was up 10 percent on Friday evening to a peak of 17,82, the highest since February. The week closed somewhat in the red on all markets. On Wall Street, the S&P -1,9%, the Dow Jones - 2,35% and the Nasdaq -2,1% fell. Europe does worse: – 3,3% for the Euro Stoxx 600, in line with the decline in Frankfurt. London -2,75%. The Nikkei index in Tokyo dropped 6,15%. Milan limited the damage: -1,4%. Behind, of course, the Moscow Stock Exchange lost 18%.
