The Parliamentary Budget Office (PFO) has revised downwards the growth of Italian GDP in 2020. "Compared to the forecasts provided during the validation of the macroeconomic programmatic frameworks of the 2019 DEF, the updated PBO framework revises downwards by two tenths of a point expected growth for 2020, bringing it to 0,4 per cent. This trend is mainly influenced by the dynamics of domestic final demand, with private consumption feeling the effects of the activation of the safeguard clauses on indirect taxes”. This is the forecast presented by the president of the Upb Giuseppe Pisauro, heard in a hearing in Parliament.
For the independent parliamentary office that oversees the public accounts presented by governments (since the balanced budget was introduced into the Constitution) "on the basis of an initial broad-based assessment, it can be assumed that the downward trend of the trend deficit can also be confirmed in 2020: the positive carry-over effects of the budget changes for 2019 and the persistence of the current level of interest rates would offset the negative impact due to the macroeconomic deterioration, making it possible to maintain a downward profile of the deficit under current legislation also in 2020" , with a deficit under current legislation for next year of around “1,7%”. In the estimate, however, the Upb underlines, the increase in VAT rates is included – from 10 to 13% the facilitated one and from 22% to 25,2% the ordinary one – foreseen in the current legislation but which the government has repeatedly said (with different nuances between Lega and M5S) that it wants to remove.
Also for 2019, GDP growth is expected to fall to 0,1%. Positively, the Budget Office observes that the budget adjustment decided by the government together with the decree of 2 July last, "should lead to an improvement in the net debt of the Public Administration of around 7,6 billion, deriving for 6,2 billion from higher net revenues and €1,4 billion from lower net expenses”
