Good news from the United States, where consumer confidence rose unexpectedly to the highest levels of 2007, gave strength to the recovery attempt, which on the contrary remained asphyxiated until a weak closure of the markets.
Consumer confidence in September tore the consensus (103 from the previous 101.3 against expectations for 96.8), ignoring the volatility on stocks and the Chinese torments of August. This is the second highest post-crisis reading, after last January. Among the positive factors certainly the perception of the labor market, at the peak of the cycle. Apart from this, consumers have expressed a growing willingness to buy a new car or house. Finally, the decline in the cost of fuel seems to appear in the expenditure functions.
The companies in the mining and raw materials sector, which yesterday fell, dragging down the markets of half the world, today moved towards recovery: the Stoxx index for the sector rose by 1,9%. Glencore gained 16,9%, down 29% yesterday.
The rebound was helped by a report by Citigroup that hypothesizes the delisting: far from the attention of investors, from the clamor of the price list, it would be easier for the first shareholder and managing director Ivan Glasenberg to proceed with the radical restructuring of the business of which there is need. Glencore was one of the brightest of the golden age of commodities, it debuted on the stock exchange in 2011 at 530 pence, a landing that made its shareholders and managers billionaires.
In 2013, with raw material prices still at stratospheric prices. the company has bought the mining giant XStrata, an operation that has overloaded it with debt, exceeding 30 billion dollars, about double its current capitalization. RioTinto was up 1,8%.
EUROPE BTP
With the fall stopped, the European stock exchanges remained in a situation of uncertain equilibrium throughout the day. In Milan, the FtseMib index fell by 0,1%, the Paris Stock Exchange ended in parity, Frankfurt -0,2%. The London Stock Exchange lost 0,6%.
Yet European Economic, Business, Industrial and Services Confidence for August were all higher and above-expected in September. Not that these are particularly popular series, but it is certain that for the moment there is no impact of the terrible Chinese August (for Volkswagen it is early). On the other hand, the CPI data in Spain and Germany are low, which suggests a below-consensus figure tomorrow for the European flash CPI, expected at 0%. If nothing else, a further incentive for the ECB to get to grips with the arsenal.
The volatility that has been affecting the stock markets for weeks now leaves the terrain of government bonds in the euro area immune, which remain under the protective wing of Mario Draghi's ECB. Not even the pro-secession outcome of the Catalan regional votes has moved the sector. The 10-year Italy-Germany spread fluctuates around 115 basis points. The spread reduction trend has eased somewhat, but the road to recovery is still open to further declines which, at least in our estimates, could point towards 80/50 basis points by the end of the year. Possible alert with the return above 160/200 basis points.
The Auto sector remained unchanged. In Frankfurt Volkswagen lost another 4,1%. According to Handelsblatt, a replacement plan for the offending software will be ready within two weeks. The CEO Matthias Muller wants to complete the intervention on the cars in just six weeks. Weak BMW (-0,2%) and Daimler (-0,5%), Peugeot gained 1,9%. In Milan, Fiat Chrysler limits the damages to 0,5%, just above 11 euros. Kepler Chevreux analysts have cut the target from 14,5 to 14 euros. The reason lies in the increasingly serious crisis of the Brazilian market. Cnh Industrial (-1%) also suffered the downgrade (from 6,5 to 6,1 dollars) due to the difficulties in South America.
The other industrial stocks listed on Piazza Affari are mixed. Finmeccanica -3,3%, StM +1,9%, Buzzi -2,2%. The dollar is slightly strengthening to 1,124 against the euro, from 1,127 at yesterday's close.
PETROLEUM
With the price of oil on the rise after yesterday's drop (Brent at 48,3 dollars, +2,2%), Eni marks a rise of 0,8%, Saipem +0,9%. Tenaris (+2,4%) showed off in the final session with a gain of 3%, to 10,93 euros, which places it in first place among the blue chips of the FtseMib, which is itself flat. There is no specific news on the stock of the leader in the production of pipes which reacts from the lows of the month in the wake of the good performance of the entire European Oil & Gas sector, the best today within the Eurostoxx index with an increase of 1,2 ,XNUMX%.
This morning, Bernstein's analysts reiterated their Outperform opinion with a target price of 17 euros. Since the beginning of 2015, the stock has fallen by 12%.
MEDIASET
Telecom Italia falls (-0,6%). Mediaset ends up down by 4,9%: this morning Barclays cut the judgment on the Spanish subsidiary Mediaset Espana. The stock has plunged to the lows of the month of September worst blue chip today. This is a downward revision of the judgment, from Equalweight to Underweight, the target price is 10 euros. Since the beginning of the year, the Spanish company's stock has dropped by 6%, since the highs of this spring it has lost a quarter of its value.
Mediaset Espana closed 2014 with revenues of 920 million euros, out of a total of 3,41 billion for the Mediaset group. The Spanish activities, in the first half, are worth less than a third of the consolidated gross profit. Yesterday Berenberg warned that the emissions scandal will cause a reduction in the advertising investments of European car manufacturers.
Among the banks, Intesa closes unchanged, Unicredit (+0,1%), MontePaschi (+1,9%). Among the utilities, Enel +0,4%, Enel Green Power stands out with an increase of 1,4% to 1,625 euros. This morning Barclays decided to reiterate the Overweight recommendation, raising the target price to 2,50 euros from 2,40 euros. Last week the group announced the acquisition, through a dedicated capital increase for 30 million euros, of a majority stake in BLP Energy, an Indian company active in solar and wind power. With this operation, EGPW enters the Indian renewable market and for the first time in the Asia-Pacific region, thus reaching more than 10GW of net installed capacity globally.
Triad +0,1%. Barclays today raised the target price of all three companies. Heavy decline of A2A (-4%). In Luxury, Ferragamo -1,6%, Yoox -2,3%.
