The macabre dance of closures-reopens-closures to fight the epidemic continues. With what effect on the economy world? And about the Italian one? Is it a generalized or unequal recovery? What is the engine, on the demand side and on the supply side? What about between countries and regions? Economists and financial markets are looking to the day after tomorrow, i.e. to the second half of 2021 and beyond, and worry about a return of inflation. Where does this concern come from? There are conditions for a restart of the run-up to prices and wages, without which there is no inflation? Or does what Mao Zedong said of reactionaries in 1946 apply to inflation here and now: "they are paper tigers"?
Because they are going up interest rates long-term? Will they put another chock on the recovery of the economy? Is the long run of the Stock Exchanges a pause that heralds a correction or something worse? And the truce in the rate movements will be followed by new currency movements?
To take stock of the economic situation, always keeping in mind the changes in the structure, starting tomorrow on FIRSTonline the March 2021 edition of The hands of the economy, the thirty-year monthly column edited by Fabrizio Galimberti and Luca Paolazzi. The analysis is divided into four articles: the first provides a general summary and one for each of the three major topics, ie real indicators, inflation and money, interest rates and exchange rates (and the stock market).
