Due to the coronavirus pandemic, 58% of the world economy is in danger: the equivalent of 50 trillion dollars. Sheltered – indeed, even “flourishing” – only 11% of global assets, equal to 9 dollars, can be considered. The estimate is contained in a study by Simon-Kucher & Partners, a strategy and marketing consultancy firm.
The analysis shows that travel, transport, hospitality and automotive are the sectors most affected by the consequences of Covid-19. Conversely, software, telecommunications and pharmaceuticals are the safest sectors.
The two extremes – businesses”threatened"And those"prosperous” – however, they do not exhaust the picture of the global economy. In fact, analysts also identify two intermediate stages:
- immediately before the 58% of "threatened" companies there is 17% of companies "overloaded”, for a global value of 14 trillion dollars (typically the chemical, metallurgical, utilities and energy, gas and oil producers sectors);
- in turn, these are preceded by another 14% of companies”overwhelmed”, which are worth about 12 thousand billion and are experiencing “a sharp decline or strong changes in consumer demand” (this is the case of banks, insurance companies and financial services in general).
The study - which evaluates the evolution of demand since the outbreak of the pandemic through the trend of sales and deliveries - summarizes the positioning of the various economic sectors in the following graph:
As for the threatened companies, "some could survive a few months in this state of suspension, but it is not certain that they can last a year or two - warn Enrico Trevisan and Francesco Fiorese, partners of Simon-Kucher in Milan - They must reinvent their entire activity. They need to organize teams to reshape the customer journey and come up with new revenue models and value propositions that work in a world living with the coronavirus. At the same time, they must eliminate business models that have no certain future for the next couple of years and determine which assets have potential value in a different area.”
