The situation becomes more and more worrying. Although the infections currently seem to be under control and the situation in hospitals and intensive care units has improved compared to the peaks of the second wave, the curve does not go down as it should and the sensation is that of experiencing the calm before the storm.
THE ENGLISH VARIANT
For days now, scientists have been talking about the danger relative to the spread of the English variant in Italy. To date, according to data, it would already be present in 88 percent of the regions and in a few weeks it could become predominant compared to the original one, causing a new – yet another – surge in infections. “In the space of 5 or 6 weeks (the English variant, ed.) could completely or almost replace the other currently circulating strain" said the president of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Silvio Brusaferro.
The first to sound the alarm a few days ago was Walter ricciardi, adviser to the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza, who has clamored for the new government led by Mario Draghi to launch a hard lockdown with the aim of "limiting the circulation of the virus to below 50 cases per 100 inhabitants", in the wake of what was done in France and Germany.
The director of the infectious diseases department of the Sacco hospital in Milan also shares the same opinion, Massimo Galli according to which “The English variant has been supplanting our version of the virus for more than a month. We must encourage the study of the mutations of the virus and draw the consequences at a national level”, said the infectious disease specialist, underlining that “of the 20 beds that I directly follow, at least one in three has been infected with a variant”.
Galli's words confirm the results of a sample survey commissioned by the Ministry of Health, according to which to date, almost 17,8% of positive cases in Italy it would be due to the English variant B.1.1.7. In France they have already reached 20-25%, in Germany 20%.
The problem is that it is a much more contagious variant, between 30 and 50% more than the original one, and therefore if it were to become prevalent, the number of daily infections, hospitalizations and deaths could rise dramatically again.
More wait-and-see, Roberto Burioni, virologist and professor at the Vita-Salute San Raffaele university, who writes on Twitter: “The problem cannot be solved with closures which only serve to buy time. It resolves with the vaccine. Now let's hurry up."
THE BRAZILIAN VARIANT AND THE SOUTH AFRICAN VARIANT
In our country, however, they are also starting to circulate the other two variants identified by scientists, the South African and Brazilian ones.
The South African variant, explains the Istituto Superiore di Sanità "was isolated for the first time in October 2020 in South Africa, while in Europe the first case detected dates back to December 28, 2020. It has a higher transmissibility and it seems that it may decrease the effectiveness of the vaccine. It is being studied whether it can cause a greater number of reinfections in subjects already recovered from Covid-19 ". Same characteristics also for the Brazilian variant that caused outbreaks in Perugia and Chiusi.
ITALY IN ZONES
For the moment, the Draghi government seems to exclude the hypothesis of a new national lockdown, continuing with the division into different colored areas and with local lockdowns to extinguish the outbreaks, as is happening these days especially in Umbria, Abruzzo and, since yesterday , also in Lazio.
In the meantime we are already thinking of one curfew extension between 22 pm and 5 am beyond March 5 (expiry date of the decree currently in force) and del travel ban between Regionsi, also yellow, which will end on February 25th.
In parallel we will try to accelerate on vaccines, trying to immunize as many citizens as possible in the shortest possible time: to date there are 3 million total administrations carried out. Instead, the total number of people who received both the first and second doses of the vaccine is 1.281.768.
