The storm has passed, I hear good wishes to party and the hen… More than a hen, in our case, it would be a chicken. Actually: chickens. We. As citizens, consumers, workers and entrepreneurs. Why?
The data of the new infections say so. Which makes two things clear. First: the peak is behind us, but the descent is slow. Second and most importantly: every time a reassuring message has arrived, it has gone down the level of attention of people and the new infections re-increase. The modeling developed by REF Research for the Emilia-Romagna Region it really shows a trend of the well-known parameter R0 which, after a sharp drop, tends to rebound.
It will be said that they are increased tampons and thus more cases are discovered. Very true: this makes the statistical trend of a curve that goes down less quickly than would be desirable less significant. But that remains there are still many new cases and this means that the epidemic is strong and can do a lot of harm. As?
With a second wave of infections, a second fire. That if he too were less violent than the first and if he too caught us, as he would catch us, much more prepared, it would be a mortal blow to the image of Italy and, therefore, to its competitiveness.
Many entrepreneurs, and many of their employees (let's remember this: the level of shared objectives between one and the other is very high), they are worried about losing demand, market shares and jobs. They are absolutely right. And we understand them very well: countries have not adopted the same ones restrictive measures, even if industrial production has collapsed in all (just look at the manufacturing PMI). Because international supply chains have become disjointed and the demand for some goods has disappeared anyway; thus, for example, the large automobile companies have closed in advance of the adoption of government measures.
But let's reflect: is it better to open immediately and maybe then have to close again? And then, dear entrepreneur friends, what would happen to the question what if we had let the virus run free and counted over a million dead in a few months?
So what to do? We do not envy those who have to decide. However, we feel like giving two tips not required.
First: do not create confusion or illusion. The message must be clear and unambiguous. As in the much admired Germany. The situation remains very serious and prudence is needed, not presumption, as Chancellor Merkel said. Only thanks to better knowledge of the virus, of therapies, of less hospitalization, of the ability to swab, to track the movement of infected people and their isolation, can we afford to ease the restrictions. In terms of administrative government technique, rather than inventing who knows what improbable miracle solution, the German experience should be carefully observed.
Clear and unambiguous message also means end of the cacophony. No more appeals from regional presidents who say their opinion, never disinterested (you are playing with the lives of your governed!), on what must be done and how to do it and who decide how and when to open, depending on whether the day is even either it is odd or the political pressures they receive.
Their point of view is crucial, because they have the pulse of the local situation better than anyone else. But it must converge through institutional channels, to collectively decide the shared strategy. Again, as happens in Germany, where the 16 presidents of the Länder (which are a little older and institutionally more important than our Regions, even the autonomous ones) met with the Chancellor and assumed a common position and strategy. Certainly so that this can also happen in our country it is necessary that the center does not linger and does not appear uncertain, forcing the Regions to take the initiative. It is also the lack of an authoritative central direction that unloads the abused accusation of "going in random order" on the Regions.
Second tip: to reopen, because it will be necessary to reopen, we need to learn to live with the virus, as an unwanted guest of our communities. This means to adopt a protocol of behavior in the workplace and in public places: measure the temperature, continue to wash your hands frequently, disinfect, use the mask, organize shifts so as not to crowd public transport, continue with teleworking where possible, and for an adequate time avoid socializing opportunities (shows, bars, concerts, restaurants, where it is impossible to respect the minimum distance).
Will difficult to prevent the virus from continuing to run, but with the right behaviors and with increased health knowledge it can become less and less dangerous. If, however, we continue to play Renzo's roosters, we will end up like chickens devoured, socially and economically, by the virus.
PS: Once the article was finished and put online, we discovered that the designated President of Confindustria, Carlo Bonomi, outlines a rigorous reopening model: «We need a methodologically clear safety recovery calendar, functional to the achievement of two objectives: reopen production because only it gives income and work; and to do so by avoiding a second contagion, which would lead us to new closure measures that would be even more disastrous at that point ». We are convinced that all entrepreneurs will agree.
