THEworld economy does evidence of rebootalmost everywhere, but the gradual easing of restrictions on social life does not mean that what companies can produce again will find welcoming outlets in the question. While generous and expensive donations of social security systems they do not reinstate all income lost and, what is more serious, consumers are not very eager to spend, especially on consumer durables, given theuncertainty of prospects. This is all the more true for entrepreneurs, who keep many in their drawer investments, for the thousand doubts on the question to come.
La China, which is a short chapter ahead of the others in the "history" of the virus, illustrates the slow recovery, so much so that the authorities have given up on predicting the growth rate of the economy (which until now was firmly estimated at 6% per annum), even if the Fund forecasts, after an almost stagnation in 2020, a +9% in 2021. This rebound however does not recover what would have happened if the Chinese economy had continued on its previous pace. Such "non-recovery" is also true for predictions related to Europe e Use, with an aggravating circumstance: the rebound (hopefully) 2021 will leave GDP still below the 2019 level. Predictions, of course, are subject to revisions in this freak crisis, where the economic meteorology gets married atepidemiology. Revisions that can be for the better or for the worse, and the crucial variable is the timing of the Vaccine against SARS-CoV-2.
There are some pockets of inflation, especially in food, where production shortages and inelastic demand have led to increases. But these are phenomena local and temporary. All in all inflation will remain low, (despite oceans of liquidity scattered by Central Banks) as weak demand squeezes prices and high unemployment squeezes labor costs. The case of Petroleum, where a mismatch between supply and demand led to outlier episodes last month negative pricesis emblematic. Crude oil prices remain below shale oil costs in America and others production cuts they will be needed. The appeal to online sales it changes consumers' spending habits, moving them towards channels with lower and more transparent prices. The courses of raw material non-oils keep low.
I rates at long, both in America in that Germany, have returned to descend, albeit slightly, both those nominal than those Really. But real rates, while around -1%, are always much higher than the (negative) rate of change of GDP. The exception to this descent is the btp, due to the silly controversies about access to the Mes and the confusion about the restrictions, in addition to the fact that the fall in GDP (between -9 and -9,5% this year, according to the IMF and the EU Commission) worries the markets. In truth, the debt sustainability it shouldn't be a problem for Italy either, given that the purchases of the central banks, which are meritoriously by monetizing the debtare irreversible. The weight of the debt will now have to be assessed only on the public market debtconsolidating the financial position of the state with that of the central bank.
THE euro it is weakening, reflecting the (de)growth differential between the US and the Eurozone, which sees, despite the general disaster, a stronger impact of the virus on the European economy than on the American one. The yuan, also thanks to a better performance – that of the Chinese economy (which does not know the shame of the minus sign) compared to the American one – is cautiously strengthening on the dollar. Relations between the US and China are already too tense, and there is no need to stoke them with a weaker Chinese currency.
The retracement of Bags leave the stock markets at levels that are not in line with historical experience. It is possible that the stock exchanges have embraced the more optimistic scenarios, but there are other, more likely scenarios that should lead to greater alignment with the corporate profits, which are in danger of collapsing by orders of magnitude higher than those of the rest of the incomes.
