Forget about a quick recovery, BlackRock's strategists say in chorus. Blame the war in Ukraine and pressure on the energy front, but also bottlenecks in supply chains and tensions on the US labor front. The dollar is approaching parity with the euro. A "hyperpoliticized" picture, note the experts, in which central banks are moving late, with the damage already done. We could define it, on a global level, as the syndrome of the three Ms: Russia's grip on methane, which primarily involves Italy as well; the lockout in Macau, the Chinese city of gaming, which closed its 42 casinos under the pressure of the latest variant of Covid-19, the most aggressive; the fall of Elon Musk, who renounced the purchase of Twitter -11% and is preparing to face a billionaire dispute with the board who accuses him (perhaps not wrongly) of having agitated the market to support Tesla stocks. The examples could go on, but the plot is already clear enough.
The cross with the US currency is 1,0011, the dollar index at its highest since 2002
- The advance of the dollar continues. This morning, the cross with the euro fell to 1,0011 at the start of the session, it is now a whisker away from parity and at its lowest level since 2002. In turn, the Dollar Index, against a basket of six major currencies, rose to 108,47 .2002, the highest level since October XNUMX.
- In this period of uncertainty, the greenback has become the safe haven asset par excellence. For immediate reasons, namely the fear of a new flare up in US inflation on the occasion of tomorrow's CPI index (the forecast is for a new rise to +8,8%) but also due to the feeling that the recession is near. Finally, because the stars and stripes economy, independent in terms of energy, is more reliable than the EU and Japan.
Tokyo down, new closures in Shanghai
The advance of the US currency, the preferred safe haven compared to gold and cryptocurrencies, is accompanied by the generalized decline in shares
- The MSCI Asia-Pacific index lost 0,8%, Japan's Nikkei fell 2%, Hong Kong -1,2%, CSI 300 Shanghai and Shenzhen -1,3%. In several Chinese cities, including the commercial hub of Shanghai, strict new controls are being implemented starting this week to curb new infections after a highly transmissible Omicron subvariant was found.
Twitter leaves 3,2 billion dollars on the ground
- On Monday evening on Wall Street, the three major indexes closed significantly lower, the Nasdaq lost 2,26%, S&P500 -1,1%. Dow Jones -0,5%.
- Twitter stock burned about 3,2 billion in capitalization.
Europe a red under the Damocles sword of energy
"The world has never experienced such a deep and complex energy crisis," International Energy Agency secretary Fatih Birol said yesterday. And the epicenter of the drama is Europe, since Monday even more subject to the decisions of the Kremlin, on which the resumption of gas supplies will depend, cut for Italy by 30%. For now, the game remains in Russia's hands: in the first week of July, Moscow reduced oil sales by 15% under the weight of sanctions, but collected only 2% less.
This explains it slowdown in European price lists, after an attempted recovery in the middle of the day, before the opening of the US Stock Exchanges.
Piazza Affari closed the session with a loss of 0,95% at 21.567 basis points.
Frankfurt is the worst and falls by 1,4%, with the focus on Daimler, -2,53%, after the slump in sales of Mercedes Benz in the second quarter, due to supply chain problems and restrictions related to coronavirus in China.
Recession in the air, bond purchases
- The decline in equities corresponded to purchases of bonds with the parallel decline in yields. The 3-Year Treasury Note returned below the 2,96% yield to 3,09% from 1,24% on Friday night. German Bund at 3,20%, XNUMX-year Btp at XNUMX%,
- The spread drops to 193 basis points despite the looming specter of Government crisis. Prime Minister Mario Draghi went up to Colle for an interview with the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella.
Natural gas falls in Europe, Biden in Saudi Arabia
Brent and WTI oil fell 1,6% on fears of a slowdown in demand from China. Joe Biden's mission to Saudi Arabia kicks off.
The price of natural gas in the United States rises by 1%. Scorching temperatures are expected in some areas of the United States.
Gas in Europe lost 6% closing at 164 euro MWh. In Russia, the pipeline leading to the West should be operational immediately oil extracted from Kazakhstan: the flow had been stopped by a court order: on appeal, the ruling was overturned by the Court of Krasnodar.
Titles in evidence: Saipem, Intesa and an offer on Prime Industrie
Saipem: today and tomorrow the unexercised rights of the capital increase will be offered, which concluded with the subscription of approximately 70% of the new shares, for a total value of around 1,4 billion.
Leonardo: Moody's improved its rating outlook to 'positive' from 'stable', confirming the Ba1 rating.
Understanding: in the period from 4 to 8 July, as part of the buyback programme, it purchased approximately 0,21% of the share capital at an average price per share of 1,7124 euro, for a total value of approximately 71 million euro.
First Industries: the private equity firms Alpha and Peninsula have presented non-binding expressions of interest to some shareholders indicating a possible purchase price of 25 euros per share.
