Markets cautious but not too much in the final stages of the week, waiting for the numbers to come out in the next few hours, from Chinese trade data to the quarterly expectations of the major US banks which will close a week which, without dispelling the clouds on the global economy, confirmed , in the words of Fed Vice President Richard Clarida, "the situation is not so bad after all" as attested, among other things, by the increase in prices and the fall in claims for unemployment benefits to their lowest since 1969. the mother of all IPOs: 100 billion dollars, the capitalization to which Uber aspires for its next debut, an impressive valuation also because the prospectus published yesterday states, among other things, that "the company will probably never make a profit".
VOLUMES FALL IN WALL STREET, GOLDEN HOUSES IN CHINA
In short, it is not easy to find a key to understanding the prospects of the Stock Exchanges, divided by pessimism on forecasts for corporations (-2,5% estimates for quarterly reports, down for the first time in three years) and the stability of prices. The drop in volumes traded on Wall Street (six million shares against an average of 7,17 in the month) confirms that prudence is the dominant note of the markets.
Asian stocks were mixed this morning ahead of March Chinese trade data. Nikkei +0,7%, Shanghai -0,5%.
Confirming the extraordinary rise of the Chinese economy came the news this morning that Shenzhen (among other things, the headquarters of Huawei) rose to fifth place behind Hong Kong in the ranking of the most expensive real estate markets in the world, also preceded by Singapore, Shanghai, Vancouver and London. In 1989, Shenzhen was little more than a village.
The US stock markets also moved little: Dow Jones -0,05%, S&P 500 unchanged, Nasdaq -0,21%.
Today the accounts of JP Morgan Chase e Wells Fargo. They will follow on Monday Citigroup e Goldmansachs. Tuesday at Bank of America e Morgan stanley.
Oil slightly up, while clashes in Libya intensify. Brent at 71,03 dollars a barrel.
Saipem -2,3%: Jefferies trimmed Underperform from Hold. Target 4,40 euros.
Gold has slipped back below the psychological threshold of 1.300 dollars an ounce.
RACE OF MARKETS TO YIELDS IN EURO
European futures anticipate a start just above parity. European stock markets fluctuated yesterday, grappling among other things with the growing attraction of the bond markets. In fact, the search for yields in euros is accelerating, which explains the strong rise of the single currency this morning (+0,36% to 1,1290 against the dollar) linked to the purchases of Japanese funds. The Italian card takes advantage of it; under 5 years, other than Italy, only Greece, Portugal, Cyprus and a couple of the Baltic republics offer positive returns. Spain also did well: the yield on Spanish ten-year Bonos fell below the 1% threshold for the first time since 2016. Brexit, on the other hand, was certainly not a good deal for the United Kingdom: from 2016 to today, investors they withdrew £25bn from City's listings at a rate of £600m a week.
FLAT BUSINESS PLACE, LUXURY MAKES PARIS FLY
Piazza Affari yesterday closed flat (+0,06% at 21.684 basis points) after various ups and downs.
The brightest European market is Paris (+0,66%) supported by the exceptional accounts of lvmh (+4,61%). In the first quarter of 2019, revenues reached 12,5 billion euros, up 16%. Uphill too Kering (+2,23%) and Dior (+2,74%). Luxury has neutralized the effect of the gilets jaunes protests.
Fractional gains in Frankfurt (+0,26%) and Madrid (+0,44%).
Perplexed London (-0,03%) after the extension granted by the European Council for Brexit: the new deadline will be October 31st, the feast of witches. Without the threat of no-deal Brexit, May's old plan, or a variant of it agreed with Labour, seems unlikely to win a majority. Once the terms that force England to go to the European elections have passed, the most likely scenario seems to be that of early elections.
THE SPREAD SLIDES TO 238 ALTITUDE
The Italian bond closed the session in positive territory, after this morning the Treasury placed 7,75 billion euros, the maximum of the range offered, of 3-year and 15-year BTPs and the new 7-year BTP, which performed well hospitality.
The yield differential between Italy and Germany on the ten-year stretch narrowed to 238 basis points from 245 at the start and 244 at the end of yesterday's session.
RECOVER UNICREDIT, MONTEPASCHI TAKES FLIGHT
The recovery of the banks after a negative start allowed the recovery of Piazza Affari: the index closed at +0,67%.
Unicredit (+0,6%) protagonist of a great recovery after the CEO Jean Pierre Mustier reduced the impact of the infringement procedure initiated by the EU antitrust on various institutes for the classification methods of government bonds between 2007 and 2012. "I cannot comment on the rumors - said the banker - but if you knew what I know, you would give this story the title of a comedy by Shakespeare: Much Ado About Nothing".
Break the bank Mount Paschi, with a leap of 8,55% on the declarations of CEO Marco Morelli on the possible integration with another institute. "within the Board - he said - we reflect on the various scenarios of aggregations or dimensional diversifications even if the choice is then up to the shareholders, in particular the reference shareholder", i.e. the Ministry of the Economy
Also on the rise Understanding (+ 0,6%) and Ubi Bank (+ 1,7%). Mediobanca (+1,6%) announced the purchase of Mais e Messier bank, a prestigious Parisian financial boutique specializing in cross border M&A.
FERRAGAMO AT THE TOP, PRYSMIAN IN THE BURST
Brilliant day for luxury also in Milan on the wave of Lvmh data. Over all Ferragamo, which closed higher than 4%.
Moncler + 2,2% cucinelli + 1,6%.
Collapse announced for Prysmian (-8%) grappling with the negative impact of the problems on the Westernlink cable estimated at 60-80 million euros of 2018 adjusted Ebitda which forced the company to review its 2018 accounts and to cancel the meeting scheduled for April 17 . Banca Akros reduced the recommendation from accumulated to neutral, with the target price falling from 22 to 16,5 euros, while Banca Imi placed the rating (buy) and the target price (21 euros) under review.
FCA REVENUES ARE DECREASING
Little movement in the Agnelli galaxy on the eve of the assemblies of Fiat Chrysler (+ 0,1%) and Ferrari. Recover instead Cnh Industrial (+2,4%) after the drop the day before. The focus on FCA is already on the accounts for the first quarter of 2019 (May 3). Mediobanca expects revenues to drop by 4% to 25,9 billion euro, an EBIT of 1,14 billion -29% and a profit of 700 million -30%. “We expect – reads the report – weak data reflecting the negative performance of the NAFTA, Apac and EMEA areas and the Maserati division. Only the Latin American market should show an improvement in margin dynamics led in particular by Brazil”.
Juventus +0,94% after the away match in Amsterdam and waiting for the mathematical certainty for the eighth consecutive championship.
TELECOM ITALIA'S FIRE AGAIN, RAIWAY SHINES
Accelerate the decline of Telecom Italy (-1,86%) also due to rumors about the imminent entry of a new competitor in the fixed telephony sector of the caliber of Sky.
Well collected Raiway, which rose by 3,11% after the announcement of an agreement with Open Fiber on ultra-broadband and ultra HD video. t1 \lsdprio
