The wound inflicted by the Coronavirus on world economies will be difficult to heal. The forecasts that follow each other day by day are the worst ever seen since the Second World War. Global GDP will fall by 3%, trade will record a decline of between 13 and 32%, foreign direct investment will fall between 30 and 40%. According to estimates (not even the most pessimistic) "500 million people worldwide are at risk of falling into poverty, 170 countries will record a drop in per capita income” underlines the economist Simona Costagli in weekly focus of the Bnl Study Service.
As per tradition, it will be the workers who suffer the most striking consequences of what at first glance might seem to be just figures and percentages. “The biggest impact of the virus on the economy will be on employment – explains the report – with an estimated loss of significant jobs”. Based on OECD calculations, in the most developed countries, in China, Brazil and Russia, jobs at serious risk would be between 15 and 35% of the total.
"The period of closure of the activities - underlines Simona Costagli in the Focus Bnl - has highlighted in particular the presence in all countries of a group of very fragile workers who will hardly be able to re-enter the labor market in the absence of targeted policies".
We speak in particular of low-skilled workers who in Italy represent about a third of the total (twice the European average). In fact, 39% of this workforce is engaged in activities that remained closed during the lockdowns, while 45% work in "non-essential" sectors. Also relevant is the aspect concerning the most common contracts in the sectors that have remained closed: 33% of the total of these workers have a fixed-term contract against 11% in occupations that can be activated via telework.
“On average, in the EU countries as a whole (plus the United Kingdom), in the most acute phase of the contagion, those employed in the sectors subjected to closure and without the possibility of using teleworking were 10% of the total,3 but the figure presents a discrete variability: in Spain it reached 14,5%, in Greece and Ireland 13%, in Italy 11,5%, in France 9,5% and in Germany 8,3%”. reads in the report.
Women are also among those most at risk, whose presence is predominant in sectors subject to closures. However, the fact that on average women are predominant in the activities that in March and April continued to operate thanks to teleworking could contribute to partially mitigating the negative impact of the epidemic on female employment. "This is not a rule: in Italy, for example, 56% of those employed in closed sectors are women, 42% in essential activities and 50% in those that can be activated via telework", Costagli points out.
In terms of age, young people are most at risk with an age between 15 and 29 years. Once again, a quarter of those employed in closed sectors (28%) belong to this band, while the presence of the under 29s is lower both in essential sectors (about 16%) and in those that can be activated remotely (about 15%).
Why is this data important? Why "sectors closed during the lockdown they will not be able to return to operating at pre-crisis rates until there is a significant easing of social distancing measures and a consistent recovery in tourist movement, which in the absence of a vaccine could take a long period of time ”.
In summary: the sectors that have remained closed, and therefore more subject than others to suffer the economic consequences of the pandemic, are also those in which the presence of women prevails, which count on the greatest number of young people and which employ the contractually weakest categories such as the self-employed and fixed-term contracts.
“Therefore a rather clear characterization of the type of workers most penalized by the pandemic emerges. Although in a context of extreme difficulty, after the emergency phase, income support measures should be accompanied by policies aimed at supporting these workers and investments in training and more generally in education. This is a theme that in many countries (including ours) was considered an emergency even before the pandemic”, concludes the report.
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