How will work change after the coronavirus emergency? In reality it is already changing, as we all see in these weeks of smart working or work conditioned by restrictive measures (or, for many, the impossibility of working). And it is difficult to return, at least in the short term, to full normality. On the contrary the forecasts for 2020 on the employment market are black: Unioncamere has estimated almost half a million jobs lost at the end of this year, 420 to be precise, half of which in the tourism sector, obviously the most penalized by the impossibility of moving, of crossing borders, of traveling by plane.
A scenario, clearly, unprecedented. In 2020, net of workers who will benefit from the ordinary or derogating redundancy fund, Unioncamere therefore estimates a decrease in the stock of employees in the private sectors of industry and services, on an annual average, of 422 thousand units compared to 2019 (-2,1%). In fact, a reduction of 190 units (-3,4%) is expected for independent workers and 232 units (-1,6%) for private employees. An analysis of the main production sectors, in particular, highlights an estimated decrease of 113 thousand units in industry and around 309 thousand in services.
Tourism is the most affected sector, with an estimated decrease in 2020 of 220 thousand employed persons, but large decreases are estimated in the stock of employed persons also in the sectors of construction (-31 thousand units), fashion (-19 thousand units), metallurgy (-17 thousand units), mechatronics ( -10 thousand units) and the rubber and plastics industries (-10 thousand units). As far as services are concerned, in addition to the tourism figure, there were significant reductions in employment in commerce (-72 thousand units), in cultural, sports and other personal services (-24 thousand units) and in transport and logistics (-18 thousand units) .
There are few sectors for which a positive balance can be expected, and linked to the health emergency and the use of technologies for remote working and more: they are in fact those of healthcare (+26 thousand units), ICT services (+8 thousand units) and pharmaceutical industries (+1.200 units) . But in addition to simple data, the coronavirus emergency also provides keys to interpreting the organizational models of work. A research by AIDP (the national association of personnel managers), for example, reveals a certain concern: 56% imagine company closures and crises and 52% imagine high unemployment rates.
But most of all for 62% there will be a redesign according to health protection regulations and constant virus prevention activities; 55%, on the other hand, foresee an enhancement of smart working activities, 22% investments in IT infrastructures and almost 11% an enhancement of smart learning. The constant, in this case, is in combination of health safety and new technologies, which should be read as a great opportunity for preparation and prevention. However, support from the State is still expected for a long time: 46% of personnel managers expect an extension of the duration of the layoffs in derogation from Covid 19 for the whole of 2020 and 39% the introduction of credit access measures facilitated.
