“We are at war, if we hesitate the costs will be irreversible”, Mario Draghi is right, real mobilization is needed. After all, the United States promised "anything necessary to guarantee the ordinary functioning of the markets" and, after some initial hesitation, also the European Central Bank seems to understand the seriousness of the situation. The very first measures to deal with the emergency were essentially monetary policy. Evidently, the injection of liquidity is an indispensable necessity and, at the same time, an urgency. But it is absolutely not enough.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the paralysis of the economic system that is already underway will triple unemployment levels within a year. The collapse of the real economy from a very first estimate, relating to only the first month of the blockade, it stands at 20%, a figure and a speed never seen before. Draghi himself in launching his cry of alarm underlines how it is necessary to protect the population from the loss of jobs by defending production capacity. Now, also in the light of the experience acquired with the last major economic and financial crisis of 2007, we must all have a very clear awareness that relying on monetary policy alone in order not to fall into an economic depression with unimaginable social implications is completely illusory .
In this emergency situation everyone is called to do their part immediately but it is equally necessary to maintain a high level of lucidity and, immediately, just as the very first urgent measures are being implemented and so that these are not ineffective, it is necessary to understand that, here and now, we have both the obligation and the opportunity to completely rethink the entire economic and industrial system of our country. In Italy, entire sectors that make up the structure of the production system – tourism, fashion, manufacturing, automobiles, iron and steel, the banking system, just to name a few – are practically at a standstill.
To these are added entire public sectors starting with health care and schools which have been the most exposed in this crisis and have shown both elements of strength and numerous limitations. All these sectors need to be given concrete answers not only to face these days of emergency and allow them to be able to reopen and start being productive again, but also to face the future. Not enough this time - but in reality it wasn't enough even for the 2007 crisis - fix something that didn't work, it is necessary to commit to transforming balances and markets that are capable of concretely achieving sustainable, supportive and inclusive growth.
In the last few years the theme of sustainability was very present on the agenda politics of large international organizations and literature becoming a fashion, very little, however, in the concrete political choices that have often gone in a completely different direction, sometimes even the opposite. Today during the emergency and not tomorrow, it is necessary to change pace and perspective. We need to give medium and long-term answers that are concrete and specific but that at the same time fit into a global project that is as ambitious as it is necessary.
To date, Europe has shown itself to be very uncertain through the different voices of individual states, without coordination in emergency management and no prospects for tackling the situation overall in the coming months. The ECB's decision to make liquidity available itself came late. And since there is no time and it is not possible to wait, the individual States, starting with Italy which up to now appears to be the most affected country, will have to act by fully rethinking their role and investing heavily in strategic sectors both from a quantitative and qualitative point of view. Today's crisis is unprecedented but history can still help.
The New Deal of 1933 and the Marshall Plan of 1947, and conversely, how the last economic and financial crisis was dealt with in Europe, can be excellent examples. It happened in the past too, but never like today the economy is facing a great tragedy which can and must become an extraordinary opportunity for rebirth.
°°°° The author is the Secretary General of the National Association of Popular Banks
