Matteo Renzi is today at the Leopolda convention, for the first time since he was prime minister, while the CGIL takes to the streets together with leading members of the Democratic Party to demonstrate against the choices of the premier and leader of the democratic party: what's going on in the centre-left? Will Renzi's charisma withstand the impact of this long-distance confrontation or are his political strength, the party itself that led to the leadership of the country, at risk? FIRSTonline talks about it with Piergiorgio Corbetta, sociologist, political scientist, researcher, member of the Board of Directors of the Cattaneo Institute in Bologna.
Professor, today Leopolda is in full swing, while the first Italian trade union is in the streets to contest a government chaired by the leader of the Democratic Party: where will this rift lead?
I want to answer by resorting to the job I do, that of a scholar of electoral flows. Let's start with the 40,8% collected by Renzi in the last European elections. We can ask ourselves: is that heritage at risk today? That is, how can the electorate react to this situation? These are crucial questions, because politicians are important, but consensus is even more so.
To understand if Renzi, with his current moves, is losing or gaining consensus, let's see how he managed to achieve the extraordinary result of the Europeans. First he attracted the votes of Civic Choice which dissolved, then he won over the centrist electorate. This is a stable consensus, little attracted by the left and by a center-right in a very deep crisis, therefore not at risk. Another substantial part of that 40,8% comes from the Democratic Party, because Renzi managed to keep his votes, while all the other parties suffered due to abstention.
Can we hypothesize a split in the Democratic Party to the left? I don't think so, because there's almost nothing on the left now. Where do the dissidents go? A minor share of consensus has come from 5 stars and the radical left, although there has been more of an exchange than a transfer, a revolving door. Is there a risk of losing votes in that direction? No, he risks intercepting them, because those movements, for various reasons, are in crisis.
Grillo shook the tree, but Renzi picked the pears, he is now the standard bearer of change. Rather he must be careful not to disappoint expectations, but it is too early to think about this. I will say more, in this phase he can increase his pool by also drawing from the centre-right, where there is a real political vacuum, so much so that even the Lega and Grillo are trying to make converts in that world. If he continues to make proposals that also Confindustria likes and if Berlusconi's aphasia continues, he has good chances of reaping in that area. So what's happening is that the premier's leadership is in perfect health.
What can we expect from the Leopolda? What is the project according to you?
I have no idea, what I do know is that Renzi enjoys a formidable positional advantage. Indeed, there are no credible alternative proposals and there are no credible alternative politicians, not even for our European interlocutors. He is a lucky man, with a disjointed center-right and an inconclusive left. But he is also a statesman, someone who manages to straddle multiple political lines at the same time, who knows how to keep right and left at bay, tax cuts and business needs, gay unions and the baby bonus. Even the economic crisis played in his favor, allowing him to relaunch employment, inevitably also implementing an "ownership" policy.
Are the fears of those who fear that a party is being created within the party unfounded?
Yes, absolutely, it makes no sense, Renzi is not interested in a perspective of this type in the slightest. He much prefers a compact party under his hegemony.
A party liquid or rooted in the territory? A party of cards or of voters?
Yes, this is a real and serious problem. The historical heritage, the headquarters and the circles of the party are not in the ropes of Renzi. But with Bersani it wasn't much different. I don't see all this change, I don't remember a fertile party of circles and full of members compared to an empty party with no members. The change has been underway for a long time and a battle to return to the old PCI structure is a loser. Surely Renzi is not committed to the party and this is a problem, it would be better if he weren't also the secretary. But it is society itself that has changed, today voters have a direct relationship with their leaders through TV, clubs are not much use.
We need to look for modern alternatives and the only ones who do it, the only ones who have really created something new are Grillo and Casaleggio, with online consultation mechanisms for sympathizers. Renzi tweets a bit, sends some newsletters, but in short, he too is quite behind.
What's new in the future for Democrats?
The big news is Renzi, for the Democratic Party I don't know. Above all, he set himself the problem of conquering him and in my opinion Leopolda doesn't mean much either. Politically Renzi is in excellent health, the Democratic Party a little less and this is a risk, think of what is happening in Forza Italia. Berlusconi, however, created a party from scratch, while Renzi makes use of something that already existed, but here too there are many weaknesses. I wonder what would happen to the Democratic Party today if Renzi, for some reason, disappeared from the scene
Is this why we talk about the party of the nation or of the Italians?
Probably yes, from a different party, looking left and right, like Blair, to quote a leader who has been mentioned several times.
Electoral law: Renzi proposes to correct the Italicum with an award to the list rather than to the coalition, in the direction of bipartisanship. But are bipartisanship and the majority vocation compatible with Italian political and cultural traditions?
The problem mainly concerns the centre-right. I believe that, in the end, it doesn't change much for Renzi if the prize goes to the list or to the coalition. As far as the majority and bipartisanship are concerned, I think they are concepts assimilated by the contemporary electorate.
contemporary.
