Il Planet he is feverish: the medium temperature has now exceeded the +1,5 degree limit, a threshold that once seemed unattainable, but which today sounds like a desperate alarm bell. Yet, while the world suffers, global leaders seem to remain deaf to this call. The 29 Cop, which takes the off to Baku today, Azerbaijan, until November 22nd, opens with a list of absentees illustrious that does not bode well for the future of the negotiations. In the background, the Donald Trump's victory in the US elections: after having brought the United States out of the Paris Agreement in 2017 (a decision later reversed by Biden in 2021), Trump could repeat the “coup de théâtre” on January 20, 2025, just after taking office. For now, the American delegates still represent the Biden administration, but the president himself has already declared that he will not be present. And he will not be the only one to miss it: health reasons, geopolitical conflicts and internal crises seem to prevent the participation of the great leaders, with the most polluting powers once again skipping the decisive appointment to save the planet.
Cop 29, the world's big names aren't there: here's why
Cop 29 in Baku starts quietly with aheavy absence of world leaders, each with his own justifications. The president Joe Biden has chosen to remain in the United States, leaving the task of representing the US to climate adviser John Podesta. From Europe, neither the president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen nor the French president Emmanuel Macron will be present: the first is busy with the delicate phases of her second mandate, the second is held back by tensions with Azerbaijan over the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Even the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz he chose to remain in his homeland, struggling with the internal problems of his coalition, while King Charles, always committed to the environmental front, preferred not to undertake the journey for health reasons. The defections continue: the Dutchman Dick Schoof will not participate, as well as the heads of state of Russia, South Africa, Japan, Australia or the Colombian president Gustavo Petro, stranded in his country by the recent floods. The unexpected and significant absence of the Brazilian president Squid, future host of Cop 30, forced to withdraw for health reasons. Finally, the Chinese president Xi Jinping and the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi they have chosen to give priority to other issues deemed more urgent for their respective countries.
In this panorama of great absentees, Giorgia Meloni will be present: as a representative of the G7, the Italian Prime Minister could not miss it, even if her intervention It will be brief and limited to a speech in plenary Wednesday November 13, before returning to Rome.
Funds and negotiations at risk
About 29 delegates are expected at COP 50, including representatives of governments, international organizations, NGOs, companies and a large group of lobbyists from the fossil fuel sector. This year's key theme is climate finance (New Collective Quantified Goal), with the ambitious goal of mobilizing 1.000 billion dollars, well beyond the 100 billion annually promised in the past. However, this figure still seems far away, and the debates will also focus on the difficulties in accelerating reducing global emissions, an undertaking made increasingly complex by the constant increase in greenhouse gas emissions.
Among the crucial points there is also the adaptation to climate change already underway, with a focus on the protection of the most vulnerable infrastructures and on the management of losses and damages caused by extreme weather events. The most sensitive issue, however, remains the energy transition, with the aim of phasing out fossil fuels – a goal on which progress at previous COPs has been limited. Indeed, COP28 in Dubai left a bitter taste in the mouth: there was talk of a “transition away” from fossils, but without binding decisions. And to Baku, the same issue risks being ignored, due to the "soft" line of the host country, heavily dependent on oil and gas, and the leadership of Mukhtar Babayev, a former long-time executive of Socar, Azerbaijan's main state-owned oil and gas company, now Minister of Environment. This is evident conflict of interest risks compromising the credibility of the conference, already put to the test by Socar's recent statements on the increase in fossil fuel production. In this regard, protests have already been announced globally, from the Climate Parade in Rome to demonstrations in Mexico and Georgia, against what many consider an unsustainable contradiction.
The Papua New Guinea protest
While the great powers remain spectators, discontent is growing among the most vulnerable countries. Emblematic is the Papua New Guinea protest, who had already declared in August his intention to boycott the conference in Baku. The Prime Minister James Marape denounced the "empty" promises of industrialized nations, unable to adequately support developing countries, which suffer the worst consequences of climate change without being the main responsible. The Foreign Minister, Justin Tkatchenko, doubled down by calling the negotiations “a complete waste of time” and reiterating that Papua New Guinea will no longer tolerate the inertia of large countries while its own people suffer. In protest, they will send only a small technical delegation, without any high-level political representatives.
The US Dilemma and the Risk of a Leadership Vacuum
In the background, a central question hovers: the role of the United States. The uncertainty surrounding American climate policy, especially with the Trump's return to the White House, also raises questions for the China. Always one of the largest contributors to international climate funds, Washington plays a crucial role in financially supporting the most vulnerable countries, those that suffer the most from the impacts of the climate crisis despite being responsible for a negligible fraction of global emissions. If Trump decides to withdraw again, as anticipated by Wall Street Journal, they might billions of dollars missing earmarked for vital programs for the climate resilience of these nations, and, above all, the political pressure on other large emitters, such as China e Gulf countries, to join and contribute to the fund.
China, for its part, seems determined to continue on this path, convinced that sustainable innovation is not only an environmental issue but also a means to gain a strategic advantage in the global economy of the future.
COP 29: Another missed opportunity?
The situation is increasingly critical: the average temperature of the Earth has now exceeded the limit of +1,5°C established by the Paris Agreement. The The effects are everywhere visible and devastating: severe droughts in Africa, uncontrollable fires in California, devastating cyclones in Florida and floods in Europe and Colombia. According to Copernicus monitoring, 2024 is on track to become the hottest year on record, and without drastic cuts in emissions, we risk reaching +2100 degrees by 3. And yet, Global emissions continue to rise, with an increase of 1,3% in 2022, as reported by the UN.
With COP29 taking place in a Baku stadium, surrounded by fossil fuel lobbyists, fears are growing that the debate will be reduced to a question of funds, without any concrete commitment on emissions limits. Whether this conference becomes a “financial” occasion or a symbol of “disengagement” will depend on the political will of governments, but the absence of the world’s great leaders fuels fears that enthusiasm for the green agenda is slowly fading, jeopardizing the impetus needed to seriously address the climate crisis.
