To avoid the European infringement procedure, the Government has launched a correction of the accounts which is worth a total of 7,6 billion euros. The Council of Ministers on Monday evening gave the go-ahead for two measures: the actual budget adjustment, of 6,1 billion, and a further decree - not envisaged on the eve - to immediately block the 1,5 billion saved on quota 100 and basic income, given the lower requests than expected.
THE DECREE TO OBEY BRUSSELS
In this way, at the precise request of the European Commission, the Executive immediately accounted for the resources connected to the two flagship measures, even if, in theory, these are resources that will emerge with certainty only with the final balance sheet at the end of the year.
While for quota 100 citizens can apply only in certain windows, and therefore it is easier to calculate, the basic income can be requested without interruption until the end of the year, therefore the forecasts on actual savings for all of 2019 are more complex.
In any case, the Government has now cut spending for the two measures by one and a half billion and this reassures Europe, because it is not a question of a commitment linked to an estimate, but of a certainty: the money is already on the table and they will only be used to reduce the budget deficit and not for "measures in favor of families", as was said months ago.
In fact, even if no member of the Council of Ministers will ever admit it, the decree passed on Monday evening is a real corrective maneuver, that is, a measure that had been categorically excluded in recent months by all the most prominent government officials. It is no coincidence that the deputy premier of Grillo, Luigi Di Maio, chose not to participate in the meeting, while his Northern League counterpart, Matteo Salvini, left early.
THE BUDGET SETTLEMENT
The bill for budget adjustment, on the other hand, contains the largest revenues: the tax revenues produced by electronic invoicing and one-off anti-evasion operations (in the lead, the Kering group, the multinational that owns Gucci) and those produced by Bank of Italy dividends , Cassa Depositi e Prestiti and other state-owned subsidiaries.
DEFICIT REDUCTION
Thanks to this double operation, the Executive was able to cut again the deficit-GDP ratio forecast for this year: from the 2,4% included in the spring Def it thus returns to the 2,04% agreed with Brussels on the occasion of the last law budget.
WHAT ABOUT THE PROCEDURE?
Now the ball returns to the European Commission, which will decide this week whether to confirm the recommendation to give the green light to the infringement procedure against Italy. The final verdict will be up to Ecofin on 9 July. However, the sensation, also confirmed by thespeech by the Head of State, Sergio Mattarella, is that the danger has passed. At least for now.
The risk is that the debate on Italian public finances will become topical already in the autumn, when the 2020 maneuver will have to be written. According to the latest EU recommendations, Italy should reduce the structural deficit by 0,6% and primary public expenditure net in nominal terms of 0,1% of GDP.
