The House and the Senate are committed to the update of the economic-financial document. The various commissions, each for the part of its own competence, are examining it, to then arrive at an opinion and arrive, next Tuesday, in the classroom. But the need for a new adjustment of the public finances is already being feared. The economist and chairman of the Senate Finance Commission, Mario Baldassarri, is convinced of this and is launching an alarm: another 20 billion will be needed.
“In 2013 there will be no elimination of the deficit and a balanced budget will not be reached, because there will be a shortage of at least 20 billion. After the maneuvers of July and August, a new adjustment of the public finances will be indispensable. For months – explains the senator from Fli – we have been saying that government interventions would have had a depressive effect on growth and that, consequently, they would not have made it possible to balance the budget. Forecasts that are now confirmed by the update note”.
For Baldassarri, the ministry led by Tremonti overestimated GDP growth in April, which in 2013 should have been 1,3%, rising to 1,5 the following year, stabilizing at 1,6 in 2014. Forecasts revised in the Update Note of the Def (0,6 in 2012; 0,9 in 2013 and finally 1,2 in 2014) but always from a perspective “marked by optimism. The recessive effects of the summer maneuvers have not been calculated - says Baldassarri. If this were the case, the government's estimates should be much closer to those made by the International Monetary Fund which expects non-growth of 0,4% respectively in the current year and 0,3% for 2012”.
Baldassarri has no doubts: "The development decree announced months ago and the Stability Law are the last thing before the ECB stops buying Italian securities, maintaining the differential with German ones".
The Def will arrive in the courtroom on Tuesday. On Monday the majority groups will meet to finalize a resolution of approval.
