The collapse in consumption stops in December. The Confcommercio Consumption indicator recorded a decrease of 1,3% in trend terms and an increase of 0,1% compared to November, while the three-month moving average, adjusted for seasonal factors, signals a moderate improvement.
“A trend which, however, must be read in the light of the significant downsizing that has been taking place for years on the side of household demand” explains Confcommercio. Compared to the last quarter of 2007, the indicator records a drop of more than 11% and, at present "the possibility of a significant recovery is not foreseeable, given the absence of policies, especially on the fiscal side, capable of facilitating and support the economic cycle. In any case, the evidence for the October-December 2013 quarter bears witness to the end of the collapse in consumption”.
The climate of household confidence is also in constant ups and downs. Last January it showed signs of recovery, but the uncertainties about the future are affecting the behavior of families. In the same month, the slow improvement in business confidence continued, within which, however, there was a worsening of companies operating in the manufacturing sector.
The trend dynamic of the Confcommercio indicator for December reflects a decrease of 1,0% in the demand for services and of 1,4% in spending on goods. Overall in 2013 the demand for services decreased by 2,4% and that for goods by 3,3%. In December 2013, positive changes, compared to the same month of last year, are found only for real spending on goods and services for communications (+4,1%) and on goods and services for mobility (+1,3 %). For the latter chapter, this is the first positive figure since September 2011.
Overall, from 2010 to 2013, this expenditure aggregate indicates a drop of more than 22% in the volumes purchased by households. With regard to the other consumption macro-functions, the most significant reductions were recorded for clothing and footwear (-3,0%), hotels, meals and consumption away from home (-2,9). Seasonally adjusted data show an increase of 0,1% in December. In terms of three-month moving average, the indicator improves moderately.
Numbers to be handled with extreme caution. At the end of the third quarter, a very low point was reached in consumer demand. “It is not yet clear whether, with the end of 2013, the long-awaited turnaround on the side of household demand has been reached, or whether it is a question, as has already happened in the past, of a temporary recovery attempt – explains Confcommercio – of the levels of consumption that fails to translate into recovery given the absence of improvements in disposable income”.
