Slow trend of domestic food consumption whose market is not yet able to send convincing signs of recovery. The data released recently by Istat indicate a 2017 share of "domestic" food consumption of 160 billion euros, which means an increase of just 0,5% in real terms, compared to the previous year. While overall consumption in the country, in parallel, did better, or if you want "less worse", with +1,6%. Confirming the specific suffering that the internal food market has been going through for some time.
In such a varied panorama, such as the food sector, there is no shortage of important segments that give clear signs of liveliness. Standing out among these is the sector of non-domestic consumption (catering in primis) which has gone against the tide by acting as a "hare". The Istat analysis shows that in 2017 meals away from home came close to 83 billion, with an annual +3,7% in real terms (net of inflation).
By separating catering, the long wave of the fall in "pure" food consumption appears more evident if we analyze the data collected in the decade of the crisis (2007-17): in fact, in this period of time they lost 10 dry points, in real terms , compared to the 2,7 points lost by the large aggregate of total national consumption.
The phenomenon underlines the weighty slimming cure to which the food market has been subjected, used for years by families as a daily savings gym. In the name of two basic criteria: less waste and cheaper products. Yet sector inflation was appreciably lower than the general one. But this was not enough to lubricate consumption. In this sense, it is significant that the only expanding distribution segment in recent years has been that of food discount stores, with annual rates of around +3-4%.
Another interesting trend that emerges from the detailed data is the growing polarization of food spending, with the growth of premium and low-price products, to the detriment of the intermediate range. What emerges is the confirmation of a phenomenon that is increasingly being debated in the country: the crisis of the middle class, with what it also entails in terms of social stability.
Yet, despite this context of persistent stagnation, food production has achieved a rewarding trend in recent years compared to the general one. Over the course of the 2007-2017 crisis, it in fact "held", with a decrease of less than 1%, compared to the parallel cut of no less than 20 points recorded by the index of Italian industrial production as a whole. The secret? The anti-cyclical qualities of the sector. And the fact that food exports increased by 76% over the decade, compared with 25% of the total industry.
It is a good spread, which demonstrates how much the Italian food industry has managed to transform the great reputation it enjoys on foreign markets into growing market shares. A success to which the SME segment also contributed substantially, with export increases above the sector average.
The final balance of food industry exports thus records, in the first half of 1, a share of 2018 billion euros, with a change of +15,8% on the first half of 4,2. Which is higher than +1, 2017% marked in parallel of the country's total exports.
Istat forecasts for the first seven months indicate an acceleration. The January-July 2018/17 trend comparison for the sector in fact rises to +4,7%, with a specific performance in the EU area of +5,7%.
Looking specifically at the growth of food exports by single destination, the modest rates of the USA (+0,9%) and China (+1,0%) emerge. While much better tuned are exports to the traditional markets of Germany (+6,6%) and France (+6,3%).
For now, what is bouncing off the American market is just a small flashing light, which needs to be monitored carefully, of the heavy tariff climate that is spreading across the markets. A war that risks weakening the first driver of development: global trade. Which, not surprisingly, is already attenuating the push around +5% that it had regained last year.
