The turbulence that has characterized international markets in recent months and the multiplication of signs of deceleration in world trade increase the risks also for the Italian macroeconomic scenario. The favorable conditions established since the end of 2014 with the fall in oil prices and the launch of the ECB's Quantitative Easing seem to be diminishing.
Above all, the dynamics of world trade appear to be weaker, given the deceleration in demand from emerging countries. The competitiveness of the countries of the Eurozone is also less favorable than what transpires from the trend of the bilateral exchange rate of the euro against the dollar: the devaluations carried out by many emerging countries will cause a reduction in the prices of manufactured goods in dollars, which will put pressure on the industry of advanced economies.
The data for the first few months of the year are nonetheless encouraging. Italy has returned to growth, approximating the average pace of the Eurozone. In addition to the contribution of the international economic scenario at the beginning of the year – especially the fall in oil prices and low interest rates – the impact of the introduction of the new car models launched by FCA was significant.
The sharp rise in car production explains a significant portion of the recovery of the Italian economy in recent months. The trends in the summer months should confirm growth in line with that of the first part of the year, while the impact of the financial crisis in the summer months will probably be visible in the year-end data. The effects on growth in 2015 will certainly be modest, while the risks for 2016 have increased.
