The Confindustria Study Center cuts its forecasts on the trend of the Italian GDP. The new estimates speak of a recession of 0,5% in 2014 (from -0,4% indicated in September), followed in 2015 and 2016 by growth of 0,5 and 1,1% respectively. And yet, "the maintenance of the 2015 forecast at the values indicated in September - explain the economists of viale dell'Astronomia - even in a much more favorable context, is already a sign of confidence with respect to the downward forecasts made by most analysts, especially international". In detail, according to the CsC, Italy will emerge from the recession as early as the first quarter of 2015, which will close with a positive GDP of 0,2%, and "the global economic scenario looks better than three months ago", even if “uncertainty remains”.
THE DANGER OF THE "SAFEGUARD CLAUSE"
One factor that could weigh on the future trend of Italian GDP is the possible application of the safeguard clause included in the Stability law, which provides for an increase in indirect taxes of 12,8 billion euros, 0,8% of GDP. If the clause were triggered “it would cause the economy to fall back into recession – write Confindustria -. Avoiding its application is therefore necessary to stabilize the country on its renewed growth path”.
THE BALLAST OF CORRUPTION: 300 BILLION LOST IN 20 YEARS
However, the most important obstacle to overcome is corruption, which represents a "development ballast - continues the study - a real brake on economic and civil progress", to the point that an increase of one point in the corruption is correlated with a decrease in the annual growth rate of per capita GDP of 0,8 percentage points.
On the other hand, if the country managed to reduce corruption to the level of Spain, our annual growth rate would increase by 0,6 percentage points, and if with Clean Hands Italy reduced corruption to the level of France (- 1%), the 2014 GDP would have been higher by about 300 billion (5 thousand euros per person).
In order to structurally bring Italy back to a rate of development "much higher than the current ones - continue the CSC analysts - it is crucial to drastically reduce corruption, which is the tip of the iceberg of widespread illegality and lack of respect for the rules . In the fight against corruption, companies, with the help of their associations, can make a decisive contribution by adopting effective codes of conduct and applying widespread ostracism sanctions to enforce them. Therefore, with the right precautions, Italian companies and their associations have the necessary resources to win” this battle.
INFLATION WILL RISE ONLY IN 2016 (0,6%)
As for the dynamics of inflation, according to Confindustria in 2014 and 2015 it will settle at 0,2%, while in 2016 it will rise again to 0,6%. Deflation, in any case, is not scary: the CSC excludes "the materialisation of a generalized process of reducing price levels in Italy".
INCOME AT 1997 LEVELS, LOST 3.700 EUROS EACH PERSON SINCE 2007
The report also reveals that Italians' incomes have returned this year to 1997 levels, with a loss of 3.700 euros per inhabitant since 2007 (-12,3%). The regression has led to the renunciation of six weeks a year of consumption: as if Italian families stopped spending in mid-November.
Precisely from the forecasts on the trend in consumption, however, the first positive indications arrive: this year household spending – in the forecasts of the CSC – will increase by 0,2%, but the increase will be 0,5% in 2015 and to 0,8% in 2016.
OUT OF WORK 8,6 MILLION PEOPLE
Much less encouraging is the picture on the labor side. From viale dell'Astronomia, in fact, they let it be known that today in Italy there are 8,6 million people who are totally or partially unemployed. The market therefore remains “weak”. According to the calculations of the economists of Confindustria, to the 3 million and 300 thousand unemployed estimated in the third quarter of 2014 (+113,2% compared to seven years earlier) we must add two other groups of jobless: the involuntary part-time workers (2 million and 595 thousand, +111,8%) and the unemployed who would be available to work but have not undertaken active research actions because they are discouraged (1 million 708 thousand individuals, +73,4%) or because they are waiting for the outcome of past research actions (725 thousand).
