“The contraction of GDP in the third quarter was in line with CSC estimates, -0,1%, from -0,2% in the second quarter. In the fourth quarter, the indicators available so far suggest no change: it would be a good basis for restarting at the beginning of 2015”. This is the forecast released by the Confindustria Study Center in Congiuntura Flash. “The few data available – it is underlined – point to a GDP unchanged in the fourth quarter, an estimate that must be confirmed in the forthcoming numbers; compared to expectations of a further decline, this would be a better basis for restarting right from the start of next year”. For the CSC, "the structural reforms bear fruit in the medium term, but in the immediate term they respond to the country's demand for change and thus restore the confidence necessary to relaunch consumption and investments".
In Italy, the economists of viale dell'Astronomia point out, "exports have started to increase again, employment is showing the first signs of recovery, the haemorrhage of credit to businesses has stopped (although the terms of supply remain narrow) and the reduction in interest rates, from which public and banking securities have greatly benefited, is starting to be transmitted to small companies”. In particular, industrial production “recovered by 0,4% in October (CsC estimate), after -0,9% in September. The cyclical variation acquired in the fourth quarter is -0,1% and the less negative evaluations on orders (balance at -25 in September, from -26) outline a stabilization of the activity; however, this is contradicted by the orders component of the manufacturing PMI, in a contraction area for the first time since mid-2013. In October, the composite PMI returned to an expansion area after 2 months (50,4), thanks to the improvement in services (+ 2 points to 50,8) and despite the decline in manufacturing (-1,7 to 49,0)"
For the CSC, "the OECD anticipator, which fell in September for the second month in a row (to 101,3, -0,03% as in August), does not signal a change of course in the current and next quarters".
