Despite the slight contraction in GDP in the third quarter of 2013, according to Istat data, there are signs of recovery in the Italian economy. However, this is a more than modest recovery, starting next year, due to the strength of the single currency, the risks of deflation and the credit crunch. This is what emerges from the picture traced by the Confindustria Study Center in the flash situation published today.
The GDP of the third quarter recorded a drop of 0,1% on a quarter, bringing the purchases for the whole year to -1,9%. “The small tailspin of the recession in the third quarter leaves the prospects for a restart of the Italian economy intact; the reverse is in progress. But the stronger-than-expected euro, the threat of deflation and the credit crunch, barely mitigated by the partial payment of the PA arrears, put the already modest growth forecasts for 2014 at risk”, we read.
In the last part of the year, GDP should register a positive sign of between 0,3 and 0,5%, according to what was said last week by the chief economist of the Treasury, Lorenzo Codogno. The government estimates a growth of 2014% for 1,1, while Istat, the European Commission and Confindustria itself speak of 0,7%.
The Confindustria Study Center also expresses itself on the Stability Law which "can even emerge weakened from the parliamentary passage, as the European Commission has also correctly underlined". And without a strong law "it is futile to expect rapid progress in the pace of GDP and, therefore, in the creation of employment".
The European Union, claims CSC, implements depressive policies that reduce "the imports of those with a deficit rather than increasing that of those with a surplus, i.e. with an excess of savings". The ECB's more aggressive monetary policy is seen as helping but insufficient without the banking union.
