At the end of the year, Italy will emerge from the recession, but the recovery will be slow and a large part of our future will depend on the political uncertainty, because stability on this front is a decisive factor in restarting investments. This is what emerges from the latest report by the Confindustria Study Centre, which has seen a positive review estimates of the Italian GDP in the short and medium term: the forecasts for this year rise from -1,9 to -1,6%, while those for 2014 from +0,5 to +0,7%. The first cyclical increase will already arrive in the fourth quarter of 2013 (+0,3%).
However, we are not safe from risks. "Internal political precariousness exposes Italy to greater distrust of foreign investors, helping to keep the spread high - write the analysts of the CSC -, weakens the country's modernization initiatives, prevents the full recovery of confidence in a country project, keeps competitiveness and potential growth low”. In short, "political stability" it is a "crucial element, the first piece in the mosaic of the relaunch".
Barring this unknown factor, it is possible that the final numbers for the Italian economy are still better than the estimates published today. The economists of via dell'Astronomia point out that the acceleration of payments of public debts vis-à-vis businesses "is an important factor not counted in these estimates, because the timing is still too uncertain". If the operation is fully implemented, it could "move the increase in GDP beyond the 1% bar in 2014".
In any case, the decline in internal question, “distinctive trait of the 2011-13 recession”, will worsen further this year (-3,1%, bringing the gap with 12,2 values to -2007%), to then achieve a marginal recovery in 2014 ( +0,3%). L' export, on the other hand, will rise by 1,4% in 2013 and by 2,9% next year, thus surpassing the peak reached before the crisis. As for the household consumption, will drop by 2,8% in 2013 and by 0,1% in 2014, reaching a drop of 7,7% from 2007.
- investmentsfinally, they will start to rise again next year (+1,2%) after -5,4% this year. Confindustria underlines however that compared to 2007 "the gap is sidereal: -27%". Precisely the low level of this data “undermines the development potential and therefore the future speed that the Italian economy can reach. But it also gives a measure of the extent of the possible rebound", for this reason - continues the CSC - "we need measures that help reallocate resources between sectors and between companies and which make Italy more attractive, in a global context where competition to attract entrepreneurial initiatives it is very high”.
On the tax front, the CSC believes that the reduction of the tax and contribution wedge is the most urgent measure to be included in the next stability law (scheduled for mid-October), in order to "increase the country's competitiveness". On the other hand, the world of work is the one that has been most affected by the crisis: according to Confindustria, employment will touch in the fourth quarter of 2013 "a new low point since the beginning of the crisis, -1 million and 805 thousand units compared to the end of 2007 (-7,2%)", and "the demand for labor will begin to grow again, albeit weakly, only since the spring of 2014”, or rather “with a little delay compared to the recovery of the GDP”.
In general, the distance that "separates us from pre-crisis levels is almost 9% for GDP in the third quarter of 2013 - he said Fulvio Conti, vice president of Confindustria with responsibility for the Study Center -, about 30% for investments, 24,5% for industrial production with unemployment that has doubled. We must continue on the path we have taken, without stopping at the first positive signs or making the mistake of not taking this opportunity to renew ourselves. Everything possible must be done to avoid recessionary relapses or competitive setbacks, as the Italian scenario requires prudence. And what weighs heavily is the uncertainty about Italian political stability”.
