The monthly analysis of the Confindustria Study Center on the economic situation highlights a still persistent crisis, but with less pessimistic signals than the estimates of recent months.
The first signs of clearing up are therefore emerging, even if the epicenter of the difficulties always remains the eurozone, where the recession is however proving to be less deep and longer than feared.
In fact, in Germany manufacturing is picking up again, with assessments on foreign orders having become less negative (but orders from the rest of the EU are very weak), and the tertiary sector continues to expand, with domestic demand driven by consumption thanks to the good performance of the labor market.
At the opposite, in Italy the contraction in activity remains marked and the Confindustria study center estimates an accentuation of the fall in GDP in the first quarter, thanks to the bad weather; domestic spending, especially consumer spending, is in sharp declineinfluenced by both the deterioration in employment and low household confidence. The credit crunch worsened towards the end of 2011 and remains one of the main brake factors for Italian companies and penalizes their competitiveness; German companies, in fact, enjoy much more favorable credit terms precisely as a result of the crisis in other countries. The massive interventions of the ECB prevented the grip from becoming even stronger, improving both liquidity and bank balance sheets, through the rise in the prices of public securities.
Loans remain, however, in decline and with rising costs. The financial restriction in Italy is made more serious by the lengthening of payment times both in the public sector and between private individuals, contrary to what happens in other economies, where instead they have been shortened. Outside Europe, trade has started to increase again, the recovery has become more solid in the USA (as evidenced by robust job creation) e the Brics are advancing at a faster pace. Raw material prices are under tension and confirm the improvement in the non-EU scenario, but erode industrial margins. The official rates of central banks are decreasing everywhere and will be kept low for a long time. The exchange rate of the euro closely follows the ups and downs of European politics.
Read the full document by clicking below
Attachments: Confindustria – Conjuncture analysis February 2012.pdf
