The vote in Italy in the spring, the European Union's response to the crisis and the American elections. According to the Confindustria Study Centre, these are the three unknowns that question the possibility of recovery for our country. The first is naturally the heaviest: “The picture remains conditioned by the unknowns on the composition of the Parliament which will emerge in a few months from the elections – write from the CSC -. The turmoil is not over." But it is the Eurozone, where indicators show a worsening recession, "the main source of instability".
In Italy, on the other hand, "the statistics in August surprised upwards - they continue from Viale dell'Astronomia -, but the climate of confidence remains at its lowest and the 'least worst' in summer could translate into a more marked decline in autumn, thanks to the deterioration in the rest of the EU. However, the fall in domestic demand was so violent as to create room for a rebound and the OECD leading index predicts the gradual attenuation of the reduction in GDP in the coming quarters”.
According to the economists of Confindustria, "the recovery requires the release of credit, which is instead decreasing: in Italy -0,5% in August compared to July, -3,2% since September 2011".
Another cause of indecision “is constituted by the outcome of the US presidential elections, due to the repercussions it will have on the choices of the public budget and, later on, of the Fed; however, the solid recovery of the residential sector creates a safety net. In emerging economies, the slowdown has ended and will give way, especially in China, to a recovery phase. The stagnation, tending to decline, of world trade sums up the unfavorable external context”.
