The coronavirus emergency deals a tremendous first blow to theItalian industry. The data relating to March and to April, the months of maximum closure to minimize the risks of contagion from Covid-19, record a cumulative drop in production of more than 50%.. This was announced on Monday by the Confindustria Study Center (Csc) in its latest rapid investigation.
The economists of viale dell'Astronomia speak of a “unprecedented fall” in the time series available to date. Furthermore, according to the technicians of the industrial association, the situation will not improve anytime soon. The beginning of the Phase 2 from May 4th in fact, it will not produce "a quick recovery", due to two orders of factors, on the demand side as well as on the supply side.
On the one hand, the families they will continue to behave prudently, saving on purchases also for precautionary purposes, in view of possible difficulties arriving in the coming months.
On the other, businesses they will still need to dispose of the stocks accumulated in the peak months of the pandemic and will have a lot of difficulty in doing so, unless prices are brought down.
In the meantime, another one will intervene to aggravate the situation weakening of foreign demand, caused by the overall contraction of industrial activity in Europe.
As for the outlook on the second quarter, the Confindustria Study Center believes that – in this scenario – GDP and industrial production will register an even worse trend than that recorded between January and March. In any case, the estimates can only be uncertain, due to the impossibility of predicting the trend of the health crisis.
Returning to the first months of the pandemic, the CsC estimates that production in April suffered a collapse of 26,1% compared to March, when it was already fallen of 25,4% on February. On an annual basis, the numbers are more impressive: -45,2% in April and -26,5% in March, excluding calendar effects. As for the orders, their volume fell by 44,6% in April over March (-42,1% year-on-year) and 23,7% in March over February (-52,7% year-on-year).
If you consider the first quarter 2020, the cyclical change in production is negative by 7,5% (from -1,2% in the fourth quarter of 2019).
As regards the GDP, the CsC provides for the second quarter, a drop of at least 8 percentage points.
