These are complicated and uncertain times, those summarized from Congiuntura flash, the monthly analysis of the Confindustria Study Centre, which outlines an economic picture that continues to prove gloomy, starting from Europe that pays, in the search for a way out of the crisis, the political uncertainty in many countries, but also a constantly shrinking room for manoeuvre, with the availability of credit which, more and more, risks being locked in a vice, crushed in the midst of cuts and "adjustments of private budgets and public accounts".
E the new tools of the ECB are not enough to re-emerge, which, in addition to the clear benefits, is also revealing insurmountable limits. And even if "the risk of the single currency dissolving appears to be reduced", the quicksand of the "vicious circle recession-budgetary restriction-selective banks" remains, in an increasingly blind alley into which the continental economy has slipped. A few glimmers, though. it seems to open for 2013 when "the impact of the maneuvers will be a little less harsh" and the risks for the currency will be represented above all by "the spreads and the levels of interest rates paid by some countries".
Italy does not stand out. Despite the surprising (positive) data for August which could, however, translate, warns the Confindustria report, "into a more marked decline in the autumn", the climate of confidence that reigns in our country remains at minimum levels. Proof of this is the continuous decline in domestic demand and household consumption. Added to all this is the OECD anticipator, which forecasts a gradual decline in the reduction of GDP for Italy in the coming months.
The political situation also contributes to completing and complicating the Italian picture, eluncertainty about the name of the future prime minister and, above all, about the composition of Parliament which will come out of the political elections that will be held in a few months.
The same uncertainty, just a few hours away from election day, which has conditioned and still conditions the United States, for the profound "repercussions that the result of the presidential elections will have on the choices of the public budget and of the Fed". Overseas, boding well is the solid recovery of the residential sector, the very one which, with the bursting of the speculative bubble, gave rise to the crisis. Emerging economies, reports the analysis, and especially China, after a long slowdown, are preparing for a new phase of recovery.
