Il Confindustria study center raises estimates of Italian GDP for 2015 and 2016, bringing them respectively to +1% and +1,5%, against the +0,8 and +1,4% contained in last June's forecasts. These numbers come on the eve of the upward revisions of GDP that the government is preparing to include in the update note of the Def: Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has already said that the forecast for this year will be revised from +0,7 to +0,9%, while "for next year we forecast a +1,4% and also in this case it will a rise”, although it is not yet clear by how much. Yesterday, meanwhile, also theOECD adjusted the growth forecasts for Italy: those for 2015 up from +0,6 to +0,7% and those for 2016 down from +1,5 to +1,3%.
According to the Confindustria Study Centre, the extent of the recovery this year "is the most robust since 2010, when there was a 1,7% increase over 2009". For the third and fourth quarters of this year, the estimate of a 0,4% increase in GDP is confirmed. 2015 “marks for the Italian economy – underline the association's economists – the first progress after three consecutive annual declines which led to a 4,9% reduction in GDP”.
The recovery of the economy is mainly supported by particularly favorable external factors: low oil prices, interest rates and the euro exchange. To this will be added in 2016, according to the CSC, better credit conditions. Furthermore, the reform of the labor market, the tax relief and the reduction of Irap "have played an important role in catalysing the confidence of businesses and households".
La household spending it will return to growth starting from this year (+0,9%) and then accelerate in 2016 (+1,5%). And they will increase again, after the deep fall in the years of crisis, too investments with a +1,2% in 2015 and a more substantial +2,7% in 2016. Ready to start again, then, business credit: in the first seven months of 2015, the fall in loans to Italian companies essentially stopped. It will stay low inflation but the risk of deflation is averted. This year consumer prices will mark a +0,2% and then move to +2016% in 0,7.
The improvement of the public accounts. According to the CsC, the GDP deficit it will drop this year to 2,8% and in 2016 it will drop to 2,1%. As for the debt, the CSC has estimated that it stands at 133% of GDP in 2015 and 132,6% in 2016 when the return will begin. Good news also on the tax front: the tax burden stood at 43,6% of GDP in 2015 and 43,3% in 2016, reaching its lowest level since 2011. Confindustria is therefore consolidating "the exit of economy since the second recession which began in the summer of 2011 and continued until the autumn of 2014”.
Despite this, they continue from via dell'Astronomia, the road to recovery "appears long in the absence of policies that accelerate growth" and the stability Law currently in the pipeline is the first opportunity for “decisive and diligent” interventions that strengthen the economy. Greater public and private investments "remain the cornerstone for consolidating the return to growth and must be supported with ad hoc measures and resources".
On the front of the work, according to the CsC, the two-year period 2015-2016 will close with the creation of almost half a million jobs, but the emergency is not over. Despite the pick-up in economic activity and a higher-than-expected recovery in employment, nearly eight million people are totally or partially out of work. According to the calculations of the Association, in fact, to the more than three million unemployed we must add the involuntary part-time workers (2,6 million) and the non-employed who would be available to work but have not carried out active search actions because they are discouraged (1,6 .638 million), or because they are waiting for the outcome of past research actions (8 thousand). In total it is, in fact, XNUMX million people.
