Due to the coronavirus effect, in the first half of 2020 the Italian GDP will suffer “a huge loss”, equal to about 10%.. If we assume a "passing of the acute phase of the health emergency at the end of May", the fall over the entire year should reach 6%, but "only the coming months will tell" whether there is "realism or excessive optimism" in these estimates. This is what the Confindustria Study Center writes in its latest forecast report, which incorporates the effects of Cura Italia decree to limit the damage of the pandemic. The data provided by Viale dell'Astronomia for the whole of 2020 is 0,5% better than the one recently calculated by Prometeia.
As for the GDP of 2021, the Csc provides for a "partial recovery", with a 3,5% rebound. But everything will depend on the duration of the block on production activities. The industrial association calculates that each additional week of downtime "could cost a further percentage of gross domestic product of the order of at least 0,75%".
Furthermore, according to Confindustria, the fall in GDP and the surge in public spending will push 2020 deficit at 5% and debt at 147%. In 2021, the deficit will improve to 3,2% (assuming the deactivation of the VAT clauses), while the debt will fall to 144,3%.
In terms of work, Viale dell'Astronomia estimates that the unemployment rate will increase this year to 11,2%, to then fall back to 9,6% in 2021. "The massive and sudden activation of labor income integration tools and support for corporate liquidity is essential - reads the report - only in this way can the destruction of jobs".
The CSC speaks of “Italian economy hit to the heart” and launches a precise warning: “We must act immediately”, with “massive” investments of as yet unprecedented proportions “both on a national and European scale. The EU institutions are on the last call to demonstrate that they are up to it. Only by making citizens and businesses safe will the current recession not turn into a prolonged economic depression".
The president of Confindustria, Vincenzo Boccia, he said he appreciated "Minister Patuanelli's statements: to ensure that all businesses, small, medium and large, have the necessary liquidity in the short term, to be repaid in 30 years, to guarantee the stability of economic fundamentals and prepare for the reopening and reabsorption employment levels".
Boccia believes it is a priority "strengthen the Guarantee Fund to allow banks to act in a timely manner. In this transition phase, economic survival must be faced, there are companies with turnover close to zero, unprecedented and unconventional interventions are needed".
