Nothing new on the consumption front. The Confcommercio (Icc) indicator decreased by 2,1% in October compared to the same month of 2012, increasing slightly (+0,1%) compared to September.
The three-month moving average, adjusted for seasonal factors, confirms the stabilization trend underway since the spring. The problem, underlines Confcommercio, is that "the modest signs of an attenuation of the recessionary phase and of a possible restart of economic activity in the final part of 2013 have not yet transferred to families". Furthermore, the uncertainties – not only onomastics – about taxes could prolong the consumption crisis until mid-2014.
Confcommercio also communicates some positive data, such as the effect of reducing inflation, to its lowest level in the last four years.
The cooling of consumer prices, especially for frequently purchased goods, is one of the factors that contributed, in November, to the improvement in household sentiment after the decline in October. In the same month, the recovery of business confidence continued, to which the improvement in the sentiment of operators in commercial and service companies also contributed.
The expectations of an improvement in the economic situation between the end of 2013 and the beginning of 2014, continues Confcommercio in a note, are confirmed by the preliminary estimates of Confindustria which signal, in November, a further weak recovery of industrial production (+0,4, 0,5% over October). Trend which, according to what was observed in the same month for orders (+XNUMX% in economic terms), should consolidate in the short term.
