Air conditioners will not be able to drop below a certain temperature starting May 1st. We start from the Public Administration (Pa) - schools, offices of ministries and local authorities - and then we will also move on to private individuals. It will be the beginning of a process that will lead us to reduce the heating temperature this winter. In fact, saving one or two degrees on heating or air conditioning leads to substantial savings on gas consumption. And it is preparing to face the embargo that could be triggered on Russian gas imports: a further sanction against the war triggered by the invasion of Ukraine.
Air conditioners and heating: the limits from May
The government is evaluating the containment of consumption linked to the use of air conditioners in the summer. In the offices of the ministries, in the local authorities and in the schools, the temperature of the air conditioners cannot be lower than 27 degrees with a tolerance margin of two degrees. Therefore: no public office can have a temperature lower than 25 degrees. The rules introduced by "bills" decree, they are valid until 31 March 2023 thanks to an amendment to the provision which is about to be definitively converted into law in the Senate.
Similarly, new heating limits will be triggered this winter: radiators will not be able to record a temperature above 19 degrees against the current limit of 20 degrees. The rule is valid, it should be remembered, for offices, with an admitted tolerance of two degrees, therefore up to a maximum of 21 degrees.
The austerity plan moves in the logic of energy saving, the first essential step to curb gas consumption: every degree more or less can in fact be worth a couple of billion cubic meters of lower imports. Further rationing could be triggered if the embargo on Russian gas imports comes into force, strongly urged by the USA to curb the war in Ukraine and push towards peace negotiations but which finds strong resistance in Germany (the EU country with the greatest dependence on imports of Russian gas equal to about 55% of requirements) and not a few concerns also in Italy (40% of current gas imports come from Russia).
Austerity and the Russian gas embargo: what's changing?
Following the lengthy online summit attended by Western leaders on Tuesday, there are signs of a further escalation of sanctions against Russia.
The US urges the EU to take seriously the embargo on Russian energy, oil and gas. And according to press reports, President Ursula von der Leyen has opened up the possibility of introducing a ceiling on gas prices in the meantime, as Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi has repeatedly urged. With the embargo, Italy could have to give up 40% of its gas needs and about 25% of its oil needs, both supplied by Moscow. But he's moving to prepare for the taps to be turned off. The renegotiations on the increase in supplies from Algeria and Egypt are already underway, with agreements signed by Eni, but we are also working on agreements with Congo and other African countries to shift purchases.
Furthermore, on international markets, gas prices dropped from their highs as if the markets had begun to price in a shift of the balance in favor of Western measures. Furthermore, the hypothesis of an oil embargo could be approaching: a measure that would considerably damage Russia by causing limited damage to Europe which can, more easily, buy crude oil elsewhere.
Consumption of gas in decline in the world due to the war
The latest quarterly data released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) provide a further element of assessment. Global natural gas demand is expected to decline slightly in 2022 due to rising prices and market disruptions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A drop, observes the IEA, which compares with the previous estimate of a 1% growth published in the January report.
The downward revision of the forecast adds up to 50 billion cubic meters, the equivalent of about half of last year's US liquefied natural gas exports.
Global natural gas consumption grew by 4,5% in 2021 but is expected to decline by almost 6% in Europe this year. Asia is projected to grow 3% in 2022, a sharp slowdown from 7% growth in 2021.
Finally, the IEA predicts that regions such as the Americas, Africa and the Middle East will be less directly affected by market volatility, as they depend mainly on domestic production. But they will still suffer from rising commodity prices, weaker purchasing power and lower investment as a result of eroded business confidence as a result of the ongoing war.
