The arrival of the dreaded second wave of infections from Covid-19 in many European countries has extinguished the hopes of resumption of air traffic, exacerbating the civil aviation crisis, one of the sectors most affected by the economic consequences of the health emergency.
In the months of lockdown, global companies have been forced to leave their planes stationary in parking lots due to the restrictions imposed globally. From June onwards, in conjunction with the reopenings, the first timid signs of recovery arrived which had led many analysts to estimate a partial rebound in the second half of 2020. Since mid-August, however, many companies have plunged back into the nightmare: flights are few, passengers even fewer and the increase in infections has heightened the fears of travellers, who prefer to stay on the ground and avoid taking planes for fear of being infected. The fact that the situation is also made worse many countries impose 14-day quarantine to citizens arriving from other states, a decision that pushes many people to give up business or pleasure trips.
The consequences of this reality are in the numbers: international air traffic plummeted by 92% in August compared to the same month in 2019. “Passenger traffic in the summer did not rebound, there was not the growth we expected. Compared to 10 million passengers a day before the coronavirus there are now a million. To have growth we should reach 4-5 million a day” explained Alexandre de Juniac, director general of IATA (International Air Transport Association), which brings together 290 airlines worldwide.
The situation is particularly difficult in Europe, where according to forecasts of the institution in 2020 air traffic will drop by 60% compared to 2019, putting more than 7 million jobs at risk. As far as individual countries are concerned, IATA forecasts that traffic will decrease by 65% in France, the United Kingdom and Germany, by 63% in Italy and Spain, even by 79% in Norway. In figures these data will cause an $84 billion hole in global budgets, despite the huge public aid provided to companies by individual countries.
Just to give a striking example, Lufthansa to date it has lost 500 million euros a month, a figure that has forced the German company to write down the fleet to be budgeted by 1,1 billion euros in the third quarter, grounding 150 aircraft and further increasing the expected redundancies (which there were already 22 thousand).
Alitalia, for its part, in the first eight months of this year it carried just under 5 million passengers, -66% on the eight months of 2019 (data Corriere della Sera). In the first half of 2020, the company burned around 490 million euros, an exorbitant amount that makes the road to rescue even more impervious.
The colossus is also in great difficulty Air France-Klm, which despite the 10 billion in aid received, according to CEO Ben Smith may need a "possible recapitalization". Across the ocean, they fare no better US companies, who have asked to extend the state aid plan expiring at the end of the month for another 6 months, proposing a further injection of resources for 25 billion dollars.
To try to run for cover and save part of the winter season's revenues, IATA has proposed a solution that could encourage citizens to travel, avoiding the quarantine obligation: the introduction of rapid anti-Covid tests to be done at the airport before boarding an international flight. In Italy this option is already being tested on flights between Rome Fiumicino and Milan Linate. In a few weeks it could become a rule all over the world.
