With a surprise decision - practically the day after the agreement (it is not yet known how solid) on the cease-fire in Eastern Ukraine reached in Minsk between Angela Merkel, François Hollande and Vladimir Putin, and perhaps on the eve of a possible European intervention in Libya to block the military advance of ISIS - the president of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker has appointed the French Michel Barnier, already twice EU commissioner (first with Prodi and then until last October with Barroso II), Special Adviser for European Security and Defense Policy. Thus effectively halving the skills of Federica Mogherini, just three and a half months after her appointment in the dual role of high representative of the EU for foreign affairs and, indeed, the security policy as well as vice-president of the Commission.
Juncker, in announcing the appointment, declared that Barnier, "thanks to his vast experience gained in the security and defense sector, is the right person to advise both me and the High Representative/Vice-President Federica Mogherini on these matters which are so important to the future of Europe”. The president of the Commission then briefly illustrated the motivation behind the new appointment, without however indicating what the division of tasks in terms of security and defense should be between Mogherini and Barnier. “When the current Commission took office – he added – we declared that Europe should have been made stronger in terms of security and defence. Of course, Europe mainly has soft power, but in the long run even the strongest soft power needs a minimum of integrated defense capabilities”. Thus suggesting that, presumably with more specific reference to the political-military crisis that exploded in Libya, some form of European armed intervention in that theater of war cannot be ruled out.
If this is the case, the choice to involve Michel Barnier, a long-time European leader, could be interpreted as an attempt to strengthen the political weight of the European Union in terms of defense in the context of a quasi-war scenario. But, if this interpretation were correct, then the arrival of the former French commissioner would take on the meaning of a declaration of (half) no confidence by Jean-Claude Juncker towards Federica Mogherini. Hypothesis which, if confirmed, would risk opening a political-diplomatic dispute between the presidency of the European Executive and the Italian government (which has nominated, and insisted, the Foreign Minister then in office precisely for that position). A dispute that – at a time when Isis explicitly threatens our country and also the current head of the Farnesina, Paolo Gentiloni – would be completely inappropriate.
The fact is, however, that Juncker's initiative - whatever its intentions and objectives - has objectively weakened the political weight of Federica Mogherini (and, by extension, of her sponsor Matteo Renzi) on the European scene in a phase of serious political and even military tensions on its borders. Nor can we overlook the fact that Angela Merkel and François Hollande (i.e. the Germany and France at the highest level). While for the European Union there was nobody: neither Jean-Claude Juncker nor Federica Mogherini; absences that speak volumes about the now chronic political weakness of a Europe that is increasingly divided internally and consequently not very credible on the global scene.
As for Mogherini – whether or not she was informed in advance of the arrival of the special adviser – so far she has limited herself to making the best of a bad situation. “I welcome the appointment of Michel Barnier as President Juncker's special adviser on defense and security. And I am sure - she declared immediately after the announcement of the ex-European Commissioner's arrival - that her experience with him will bring added value to the president's work in this field, and I will be happy to ensure full collaboration from my services ”.
Apart from this statement, Mogherini has continued to follow the dossiers that have kept her busy since she took on the role of high representative for foreign affairs, defense and security. Yesterday he issued a harsh statement addressed to Russia and the rebels that Moscow supports in eastern Ukraine, denouncing "a clear violation of the ceasefire at Debaltseve" and warning Russia and the Ukrainian separatists "the immediate and full compliance with the commitments undertaken in Minsk, as well as with the resolution approved on Tuesday by the UN Security Council”. And you confirmed your commitment to go to Bosnia-Herzegovina on Monday for contacts with the rulers of that country in view of further rapprochement with the European Union (pin prick for Putin?).
As for Barnier's specific experience in terms of defense and security (about which some commentators have expressed some perplexity), a note from the presidency of the Commission underlines that the former commissioner was part of the praesidium of the Convention which drafted a draft European Constitution then rejected by referenda in France and Holland, chairing the working group on defense in 2001. Who, as special adviser to José Manuel Barroso during the first of the two terms of president of the European Executive, in 2006 presented to the European Council the proposal to create a European civil protection force. And who, as owner of the Internal Market and Services portfolio in the second Barroso Commission, led (with others) the task force on defense and exercised the communication supervision of the Commission itself on the European defense markets.
Finally, again from the note from the presidency of the Commission, we learn a detail that could help to understand the meaning of Barnier's appointment. Who "will make his debut in his new role by assisting the President of the Commission in the preparation of the contribution to the work of the European Council dedicated to EU defense policy". A clarification which, however, does not fully clarify the reason for resorting to an external consultant – a high-level one, of course – nor what his duties will be at the end of this debut.
Nor, finally, can we completely ignore other facts which could at least have contributed to orienting Juncker's decision. The first is that Barnier is a prominent exponent of the European People's Party such as the president of the Commission, in whose perspective the French could politically balance a high representative of a socialist matrix. The second is that Barnier is popular, yes, but he's French; and France boasts a non-secondary presence in the defense markets, as well as conspicuous economic and political interests in Africa. So would it be political fiction to hypothesize that Paris may have sponsored the former European commissioner to some extent? What's more, as Juncker's staff is keen to point out, he will work for the Commission on a temporary basis (how much, we don't know) and at no cost; however, maintaining for three years, like all ex-commissioners, the lavish "reintegration" allowance.
