Closure of shops and shopping centers on Sundays and public holidays: many proposals, many controversies, but the estimates speak for themselves and in most cases indicate a negative effect on employment and GDP. Indeed, if the proposal, started by the 5 Star Movement and subsequently followed by the League and also by a (much softer) counter-proposal from the Democratic Party, has on paper the noble intention of restoring Sunday as a "day of rest" and of helping exhibitors not to be engulfed by large-scale distribution, many estimates say that the results would not be those hoped for and that the measure could indeed prove to be quite counterproductive. TO support this thesis and also the Carlo Cattaneo Institute, an authoritative study and research center founded in 1965, which estimates the consequences on the economy of the individual proposals of 5 Stars, Lega and Pd, and also of a hypothetical unified text that averages between the three bills.
The verdict on the grillino project, which allows for a maximum of 16 openings a year on 52 Sundays and 12 public holidays (total potential of 64 days) is merciless: it would cost 9,4 billion GDP (of which only about half recoverable but more through e-commerce than with a significant return for small businesses) and would lead to a potential reduction of 148.000 jobs. The loss on GDP only takes into account the lack of consumption, to which must be added a decrease in tax and social security revenue which can fluctuate - according to the Istituto Cattaneo - between 1,5 and 2 billion euros per year. Not to mention what the research center defines the impact in terms of global economic psychology of the Sunday and holiday closing of the shopping centres. One example cited is the stop to the sale of the Cigierre restaurants (Old Wild West and others), by BC Partners, communicated on November 14, 2018: according to some sources consulted - wrote Il Sole 24 Ore -, the sale would have been put on hold for the moment precisely because the current macroeconomic situation in Italy is considered excessively uncertain.
The positives, like the less work-related stress for the employed (4,7 million Italians work on Sundays, 19,5% of the total, as in France but much less than in countries such as Denmark and Holland, with 33%, and below the EU average with 23,2%) and the possible better collective social health, are considered by the Istituto Cattaneo to be of little significance, as are any benefits for small traders: "We believe it plausible - writes the research analyzing the Five Star proposal - a recovery of 5,4 billion euros , concentrated for approximately 1,4 billion on e-commerce and for 4 billion in terms of spending on other days of the week. In the latter case, however, the share reserved for small exhibitors would be marginal, estimated at between 10 and 15%”.
As for the other reform proposals, they would have less traumatic effects. The proposal of the League, which consists in the closure in 12 defined holidays, regardless of their occurrence, due to the status of particular holidays, would have an estimated employment impact of 33.000 fewer jobs, with a relative loss of GDP equal to 0,14 % (-2,1 billion euro). “Of these – writes Cattaneo – we believe a recovery of 1,4 billion is plausible, concentrated for around 900 million on e-commerce and 500 million in terms of spending on other days of the week”. The impact of the Pd's proposal is even milder, which compared to the 12 closures desired by the League, proposes to the operator the possibility of derogating 6 times (therefore in fact only 6 mandatory closures per year): a total of 15.000 jobs would still be lost (including supply chains), with the GDP penalized by 0,064%, equal to less than 1 billion euros, of which a good part recoverable through the rebound in consumption on other days of the week and e-commerce.
The "compromise" text, on the other hand, would be structured as follows: closing for 12 defined public holidays (with the possibility of derogation for a maximum of 4 times), Sunday closing (with the possibility of derogation from a minimum of 8 to a maximum of 26 times out of a total of 52 Sundays). According to the projections of the Istituto Cattaneo, it would lead to an estimated reduction of 94.000 jobs and a negative impact on GDP of 6 billion euros. Finally, two factors must be added to these numbers: the drop of 50% in spending by foreign tourists, who are the ones who most fuel consumption at the weekend, especially in the fashion and clothing sector; and the "caution" of the estimates of the Istituto Cattaneo.
As far as tourists are concerned, taking into consideration the approximately 1,5 million travelers who visit Florence, Milan, Rome and Venice every year with shopping as the main reason, the data show that they spend an average of 112 euros per person per day, therefore a figure much higher than that attributable to the average of all tourists: most of the money is spent on jewelery (18%), clothing (16%) and accessories and design objects/furniture/antiques/paintings (both 13%) . In the ranking of the per capita daily expenditure of shopping tourists, Venice is in the lead with 238 euros, followed by Florence (120 euros), Milan (113 euros) and Rome (94 euros). But even among Italians the trend is confirmed by a study by Federdistribuzione presented to the Chamber in 2018: 19,5 million Italian families buy Sundays, for 58% of families, Sunday shopping is a consolidated practice, Sunday is the second day of the week by turnover among Federdistribuzione members, young people buy more on Sundays, using e-commerce as an alternative.
As regards the method of analysis of the Istituto Cattaneo, the estimate for the loss of GDP on a Sunday with the shops closed is even very conservative: “Our estimates are conservative: in 2006 Cermes/Bocconi estimated the value of one Sunday in almost 300 million euros. Our reference area (incremental for effective deviation) has a pivoting value close to ai 200 million euros/Sunday“, explain the authors of the research.
