After the bubbly start to 2013, the markets have reached a turning point: the question of the debt ceiling in the USA, new tensions in the Eurozone and the announced monetary turnaround in Japan contribute to making the horizon more uncertain after the leap in after you.
Negative start of Asian stock exchanges, Tokyo -1,5%. Today begins the meeting of the Japanese central bank which will sanction the "conversion" of the Boj to the requests of the new government: the inflation target will be doubled (from 1 to 2%) together with other expansive measures. But Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's collaborators have warned against the risks of a too rapid devaluation of the yen. And the Stock Exchange has reversed. Hong Kong is also reflective, - 0,03%.
Stock exchanges orphaned today by Wall Street.
The lists will be closed on the occasion of the President's swearing-in celebration in Washington. On Friday, the indices closed near their five-year highs: Dow Jones +0,4%, S&P +0,3%, Nasdaq -0,04%. In Milan, the FtseMib index closed the week with a modest gain of +0,2%, but after the +3,2% of the previous week and after the +4,2% of the first week of 2013.
ITALY
The key event of the financial day regards the landing in Milan of the delegation of the Monetary Fund which will carry out a check up on the quality of the credits in view of the closure of the balance sheet accounts.
After the rise of BTPs in the hands of credit institutions, the first cause of the violent rise in sector prices, attention shifts to the sector's Achilles heel: the amount of provisions for risks which, in November, according to the Abi have reached 121,8 billion. The IMF and the Supervision of the Bank of Italy (which is about to conclude the inspection of the 25 major banking groups) are above all interested in verifying the degree of coverage of non-performing loans.
This reopens the question of whether or not new capital increases or even "Spanish-style" measures are necessary, such as the creation of a bad bank in which to allocate non-performing loans and bad debts. Both hypotheses are vigorously contested by the ABI which underlines the greater severity of the controls of via Nazionale compared to other systems. Hence the importance of the visit by the IMF team, which is a prelude to the launch in the spring of a stress test on Italian banks, called the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) in which some stress tests will be prepared on the assessment of risk and the robustness of the financial system.
In the meantime, the big names shone among the banks on Friday: Unicredit [C1,8% and Intesa +1,2%. Banco Popolare -0,2% and Ubi Banca -0,4%. Mediobanca -0,8%.
AMERICA
The Wall Street indices are now approaching the highs of October 2007, ie the era of the first signs of the crisis that erupted with subprime mortgages and the collapse of Bear Stearns. In those days, as emerges from reading the Fed minutes published last week, no one, from Frederic Mishkin to Ben Bernanke himself, had understood the seriousness of the situation. Indeed, the feeling that a healthy cleaning operation was underway prevailed.
As regards the quarterly results, the attention of the markets was concentrated on the positive numbers of Morgan Stanley and General Electric. Morgan Stanley reported profits of $507 million in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared with losses of $205 million in the same period of 2011. The numbers beat analysts' expectations, bumping earnings from the first six quarters to more than $16 billion. American banks. General Electric: saw quarterly earnings rise in both industrials, 12% to $4,89 billion, and financial services, 9% to $1,81 billion.
EUROPA
Angela Merkel stumbles in Lower Saxony, the most significant electoral test before the nationwide vote in September. Now the majority that supports the government is at risk in the Senate. The coalition between the chancellor's party and the liberals lost narrowly (only one councilor) in the Land of Hanover, the second largest in the Federal Republic, which will be governed by Social Democrats and Greens (rising to 13,5%), the coalition that will challenge Frau Angela also in September. The CDU loses six percentage points to 36,5% but the liberal allies exceed 9%, well beyond the 5% threshold, banishing the nightmare of leaving the local parliament.
The International Monetary Fund estimates that Greece will need new funds of 9,8 billion for the two-year period 2015-2016, but adds that it has received reassurances from Europe on the arrival of the necessary aid. This is the first time the IMF has provided a rough assessment of additional financing needs beyond 2014 for Greece's international bailout programme.
Nothing done for the debts of Cyprus. Only in two months' time, after the elections on the island, will the EU decide whether and to what extent to intervene to rescue Nicosia's foreign debt, on which many doubts weigh, starting with the role of suspicious capital arriving from Russia. But a default by Cyprus could raise tensions again in the eurozone, with unpredictable effects on Ireland and Spain.
INSIDE BUSINESS PLACE
Spotlight on the exchange ratio between Atlantia and Gemina. Among the first hypotheses is a mixed offer for Gemina shareholders: 700 million cash, the rest in new Atlantia shares. Gemina's current capitalization is equal to 1,8 billion against 1 billion before the approval of the new tariff plan.
From Detroit Sergio Marchionne continues his campaign for a concerted reduction of the offer of European producers. “I don't know until when it will be possible to subsidize certain loss operations – he told the Financial Times -. I think we are on the eve of a traumatic turning point: the hurricane is on the way”. The Chrysler CEO did not hide the difficulties in reaching an agreement with the US union which has started the procedures for the pre-listing of the US group.
Friday Fiat +1%: the manufacturer has signed an agreement with Mazda to produce a new car under the Alfa Romeo brand.
The rally of the Berlusconi stable is awaiting confirmation. On Friday Mediaset +5,8% was the protagonist of the session: Berenberg brought the target price to 2,6 euros and confirmed the Buy recommendation. Mondadori jumped by 8%.
Tod's is also looking for confirmation, which in the last session set an all-time high at 105 euros and then finished up by 0,8% to 102,90 euros. The Fonsai Unipol hub rallied last week. Fondiaria Sai gained 13% during the week. Unipol +4%.
