Italians are among the world's largest consumers of coffee (we drink on average four a day, even if there are those who do better), yet few of them know that in the future they may have to give up a few cups, or pay much more for them. The reason? Guess what: i climate changes. As well as practically all raw materials, especially agricultural ones, even coffee through a moment of difficulties globally: 2023 was the fourth consecutive year of production stagnation, with growth of just 0,1% and consumption exceeding production by nearly 5 million 60kg bags. The ICO, International Coffee Organization, predicts that 2024 will also be like this and indeed the United States Department of Agriculture estimates that this year stocks will reach their lowest level in 12 years. That's not all: the University of Zurich believes that between now and 2050 the areas suitable for coffee plantations will be reduced by 50%, and according to the Humboldt University of Berlin the Arabic quality in Brazil it will be practically impossible to find (-85%).
Brazil: the coffee giant under siege from the heat
The one on the Brazil it is not a trivial fact, given that it is by far the world's leading producer with 33% of the market and the first exporter with 26% (exports to 152 countries), ahead of Vietnam , Indonesia e Colombia: half of the world's coffee is grown in South America and Brazil is the benchmark, the country that dictates prices to the point that the 2019 production record had brought Guatemala to its knees, triggering a wave of migration towards the USA (in that case the Washington Post wrote that Brazil is “the Saudi Arabia of coffee”). Yet even the South American giant is now in difficulty. Why? It's too hot. Although coffee is grown in the tropical zone, it cannot tolerate excessively high temperatures such as those recorded in recent times, particularly in South America where the heat has been raging for a couple of years.anti-cyclone El Nino. In Brazil, 2023 was the warmest year since the temperature has been measured, i.e. for 174 years, with 1,27 degrees above average.
Coffee, production collapses and the cup becomes a luxury
Le coffee plants instead they need one temperature annual average not exceeding 23 degreesIndeed, for "robust" quality the ideal, according to Australian research published in Global Change Biology, would be 20,5 degrees, much lower than previous estimates which indicated good productivity even between 22 and 30 degrees. Of this specific quality, much sought after on the market, the world's leading producer is Vietnam, which however saw production collapse by almost 2023% in 10, again due to climate change: in this case, the reason was rainfall prolonged and above average. In Brazil instead, the heat is a concern: according to the prestigious magazine Scientific Report, an increase of just one degree in the average temperature in the state of Espirito Santo, one of the country's major producers, is linked to a 41% drop in production. What does all this mean? That the coffee become more and more expensive, and that to continue producing it we will have to invent ways alternative.
Coffee at risk, how can we save it from climate change?
One of these, according to a study by the Faculty of Agricultural Engineering of the University of São Paulo, could be plant more fruit trees in coffee plantations, to generate more shade e lower the temperature by approximately 0,6 degrees. Another option: thegenetic evolution, controlled by science. Ethiopia, for example, is the fifth largest producer in the world, specializing in "arabica", but risks losing 60% of its plantations between now and 2100. However, it could reconvert: the species Coffea stenophylla, studied by the Royal Botanic Gardens, tolerates temperatures almost 7 degrees higher than those of the arabic quality. Or, there is always the option of grow at higher altitudes to find less torrid temperatures. Indeed, according to the scientific journal Frontiers in Plant Science this practice could even improve the quality of the coffee. But it is by no means a given that we will be able to find suitable territories and, above all, large enough to support global demand, in addition to the fact that there is a lack of infrastructure and that the activity of current farmers would be crushed, generating economic crises and consequent migrations. Well, when we say that the climate crisis is a humanitarian emergency, this is what we mean.