WALL STREET UP. MANAGER “LICENSES” BALLMER FROM MICROSOFT
A series of disappointing US economic data did not prevent the main market indexes from closing the session slightly higher for the second consecutive day after starting in the red. First quarter GDP rose by only 0,8% (against a forecast of 2,2), consumption by 2,2% (2,8 was forecast) while claims for unemployment benefits grew to 424 units (economists had expected a drop to 404). The Dow Jones, which had managed to lose up to 76 points before reversing course, closed at 12402,76 (+0,2) driven by the accounts of Microsoft (+2%) and Hewlett Packard (+1,5 %). The Standard & Poor's 500 rose 5,22 points or 0,4% thanks to technology and telephones while the Nasdaq recorded a gain of 0,8%. The session with modest volumes was enlivened by manager David Einhorn's comments on Microsoft: the stock has excellent prospects, but, he added breaking a taboo, it must get rid of Steve Ballmer. “He's a manager – he said – who often doesn't take into account what Wall Street thinks. Which can be good but, apart from that, his management style is now old ”. The three freshmen of the day (Freescale, Lone Pine Resorts and Spirit Airlines) had to cut the initial offer price. Only Freescale closed the opening day on positive ground.
Indexes almost unchanged also in the East; the Nikkei rose by 0,02%, despite the growth of the yen and an initial increase in inflation (+0,6%) due only to the increase in the price of raw materials, while consumption remained depressed. The Shanghai Composite falls by 0,10, the increase in Hong Kong's Hang Seng is more robust: +0,99 per cent. The fall of Sony (-3%) is significant: the market judges the forecasts after the earthquakes too optimistic. The response to Hiunday's results was good (+2,9%) but the Kospi index in Seoul closed in the red for the fifth consecutive week.
JUNCKER SINKS THE EURO
The declarations of the president of the Eurogroup, Jean Claude Juncker, author together with Giulio Tremonti of an article in the Financial Times in support of the creation of Eurobonds, and the negative data arriving from the USA conditioned the second part of the day on the European Stock Exchanges, dragging indices down. Juncker's words above all caused the small landslide: Greece will not achieve its budgetary objectives, which could jeopardize aid from the Monetary Fund as early as next month. The IMF could refuse to pay Athens the 3,3 billion euro envisaged as part of a 12 billion aid package. The news affected the performance of bank stocks. In the other sectors, there are few growth stocks, among which Edison and A2A stand out.
A COCO BOND FOR PONZELLINI? NO THANK YOU
At this rate, Corrado Passera will be tempted to turn to Davide Serra, manager of Algebris and "tailor" of innovative solutions for capital increases. Indeed, in this capacity, Algebris contributed to Lloyd's capital operation in which Coco Bonds (bonds that can be converted into shares by choice of the company or the regulators to comply with the parameters of Basel 3) played a large role. In reality, both at Intesa and at Ubi, until the last minute, it was thought of also resorting to this form of "quasi capital" to make the demand on the stock market less heavy. But in the end the more traditional option prevailed, which is also the least expensive (there is, for now, a couple of percentage points of difference between the dividend and the Coco coupon). But, at the time of the choice, Corrado Passera could not have imagined that fate would rage so ferociously against the Banca Intesa San Paolo operation. Last episode the utterances of Jean-Claude Juncker who pushed back both the title (-0.68%) and the rights, which fell back to 0,1073 euros. In short, Intesa will have to fight to the last to ensure the success of the capital increase of 5 billion. Of course, the bank runs no risk just like Ubi. But the same does not apply to Mps and, above all, to Bpm (-3.04%) which in September will have to flesh out the houses in Piazza Meda with fresh 1,2 billion, as requested by the governor Mario Draghi. For Massimo Ponzellini, contested by a part of the union, the atmosphere is not the best. He himself has denied the hypothesis of an entry of Mediobanca on the occasion of the capital increase scheduled for September. But suspicions remain. Perhaps, to achieve the objective of the increase, the Coco bonds could be needed. But be careful, warns Serra, Coco bonds are suitable for the strongest and most capitalized banks. The opposite of Bpm which, moreover, certainly doesn't have a good track record in the placement of its products with customers, as evidenced by the fine given to the top management for the methods used in the placement of the 2009/13 convertible.
UBS TO MARCHIONNE: IN LONDON TO CHOOSE THE RULES MOST LIKED
Other than Fiat. The "tear" that causes economic Europe to be discussed is not the Lingotto's announced farewell to the Confindustria system. He but the one, much more sensational, of the investment bank of Ubs from Switzerland. For now it's just a threat. But very serious. The flagship of Gnome Country could move elsewhere, probably to London. Not for fiscal reasons but to escape the rules imposed by Bern. It all stems from the shock of 2008 when Switzerland, in disbelief, witnessed the collapse of its banks, overwhelmed by the subprime crisis. A nightmare from which the Confederation came out at great cost and with the decisive contribution of the Singapore partners. Once the fear has passed, however, the federal authorities wanted to take drastic decisions to strengthen the solidity of the system on which the country's wealth and international credibility rests. Therefore, it was decided that the core tier 1 of Credit Suisse and UBS should reach 19 percent, double what is required by the Basel 3 criteria. in addition to equity, Coco Bonds, i.e. those bonds that can be converted by the bank or to the regulators into shares. An expensive solution, but one that met with the favor of the market: investors competed to buy the bonds at 9 percent. Furthermore, the prospect of conversion is truly remote: it will only take place if the bank loses more than double what it lost during the Lehman crisis, Other music at Ubs, a giant that manages assets for 951 billion Swiss francs, almost double the country's GDP (495 billion). The reason? The capital increase will produce, as a consequence, a drop in Roe, which is, among other things, the parameter on which stock options have been pegged for managers, including the former Unicredit Sergio Ermotti, hired by Gruber. A reason that justifies a move. It is easy for Marchionne, ex Ubs, to share the principle.
AND TWO. RHIAG ALSO FAILS TO LAUNCH ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE
Rhiag, one of the continental leaders in the buying and selling of car parts, has failed to land on the stock exchange. This is the second case this year, after the lump sum of the biotechnological company Philogen, it fell to this company which aimed at the Stock Exchange both to encourage shopping abroad and to reduce debt that exceeded the level of watch. But Rhiag was probably also hurt by the fact that the placers and bank creditor of the private equity owner were the same thing in two out of three cases, i.e. Intesa and Mediobanca. Now, to remove that embarrassing "zero" in the 2011 IPO box, all that remains is to rely on the star of Ferragano and that of Moncler
