The energy sector's fight against climate change in 2024 passes through Southeast Asia. For industrialized countries it is more than a slogan. The energy ministers of 50 countriesThey met in Paris this week for the 50th anniversary of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The most important decision taken was to open the doors of the Agency to India. The country, among the largest emitters of CO2 in the world, was on the waiting list from October 2023. It wants to share actions to contain global warming but it is not clear with what programme.
The ministers recognized India's strategic importance in addressing energy and climate challenges. In the final document, however, there is no reference to anything concrete other than the Prime Minister's declarations Narendra Modi. India in 2023 was the fastest growing country in the world. “Sustained growth needs energy security and sustainability,” Modi said but did not explain how he intends to combine the two needs. While industrialized countries continually review their transition programs, India will have to implement an effective and rapid strategy to reduce its CO2.
Record temperatures in the world
The balance between innovation and sustainability is subtle and also concerns economies that grow less than Asian ones. This year the IEA must necessarily keep both geopolitical uncertainty and the "global temperatures that continue to break records" under control, we read in the final document of the summit. It is not the first time that he has faced such delicate challenges but his role has changed as the French president recalled Emmanuel Macron.
The Agency's analyzes are detailed, however renewable sources will continue to suffer from the overtaking of gas and oil. Saudi Arabia has just confirmed production of 12 million barrels of oil per day to meet global demand. The USA has suspended (for now) new authorizations for LNG exports but remains the leading exporter in the world. Two sides of the same polluting coin.
The scenario of 2024
2024 will be a crucial year for at least two other particular circumstances: 2 billions of people they will vote in 76 countries and governments will have to deal with an increase in energy consumption estimated at over 3%. It is unlikely that demand will all be met by renewable sources.
The IEA in Paris was given a mandate to “lead the future, continue to monitor and report results against key commitments”. But the icing on the birthday cake lies in "building a more inclusive energy economy, in increasing investments in clean energy where high financing costs and difficulties in accessing capital are slowing down energy transitions." The hope of seeing something concrete is contained in these three lines.
India participates and leads the way, but continues to push on coal...