By now everyone is saying that they want a success for the United Nations conference on climate change to be held in Paris from November 30 to December 11 for the finalization of a major new agreement to replace the one signed in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. If the message will be clear and binding, the business and financial world, and not just governments, will gain confirmation that massive investments will be needed in the green economy and related research, as crucial factors for development in the coming decades. But as always the devil is in the details which aren't actually such.
CONSENSUS ON THE FUNDAMENTALS AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE GREEN ECONOMY
From the preparatory works it emerges that there is consensus, at least in words, on the fundamentals and in particular on the reaffirmed objective of limiting the average increase in temperature in the atmosphere at the end of the century to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels ( which would otherwise grow at current rates of pollution up to 4 degrees), reducing CO2 emissions for this purpose at certain and agreed rates through effective actions in the fields of energy efficiency, development of renewable energies, protection and extension of forests and agricultural soils and establishment of a fund expected to be $100 billion when fully operational starting in 2020 to support necessary adjustments in developing countries and their capacities to implement them.
All within a framework of coherence and synergies with the commitments undertaken at the United Nations conference in Addis Ababa in July 2015 on financing for development and in the 2030 Agenda adopted by the Heads of State and Government last September on the occasion of the General Assembly of the UN. And this in the awareness that the increase in temperatures, affecting the degradation of ecosystems and biodiversity, jeopardizes the objectives of reducing poverty and improving the food and health conditions of the populations and with them global security.
This awareness has grown significantly in recent years following the floods and other extreme events in Asia, the Americas and Europe (and we see how vulnerable Italy is in this regard), as well as the increase in desertification processes especially in Africa and resulting conflicts and population movements. Important awareness has also come from the positions of the Church as expressed in the encyclical Laudato si by Pope Francis and from the proposition of these themes in the context of Expo 2015.
CONVERGENT BUT DIFFERENTIATED SENSITIVITIES OF THE UNITED STATES, CHINA AND THE EUROPEAN UNION
A strong push to make the prospect of a desired overall agreement credible came from the convergences registered between the United States and China, which together produce 45% of global emissions. In early August, Obama announced a program for the reduction of CO2030 emissions by 2% compared to 32 values by 2005, similar to the European reduction of 40% compared to 1990 levels, and an increase in the share of renewable sources in the mix 28% energy. The lobbies of the coal chain and some sectors of the hydrocarbon industry have moved against him.
On the other hand, the growing companies of the green economy operate in its favor and partially, in this phase, the operators in the gas field that the Obama plan intends to privilege, also under the pressure of the moreover controversial "shale revolution", compared to the more polluting coal with which is still produced 34% of electricity in the country. In any case, these are commitments on which the hesitations of the behavior of a Congress with a Republican majority hostile to the President's environmental plan weigh, as well as the results of the next presidential elections.
In the meetings between Obama and Xi Jinping in Beijing in November 2014 and in Washington in September 2015, a common will to reduce emissions was affirmed. Or at least as far as China is concerned, anchored to the principle of differentiated responsibilities while making significant investments in the field of the green economy in recent years, to progressively reduce its increase up to a reversal in 2030.
In parallel, on the occasion of the summit in June 2015 between China and the EU (whose contribution to global emissions is currently 11%) the commitment was affirmed to work together to achieve the goal of the limit of increase below 2 degrees Celsius , to follow up the decisions already taken by the international community and to adopt new ones having a binding character. For China, it will above all be a question of favoring gas (which, moreover, has significant geopolitical implications) and renewables over coal, which currently powers over 60% of Chinese electricity production.
DIFFERENCES ON THE METHODS
However, considerable divergences and mental reservations remain, confirmed at the preparatory meeting held in Bonn at the end of October, on a wide range of ways of achieving apparently shared objectives, which reveal a willingness on the part of different groups of countries, bearers of different interests, to shift the balance of burden-sharing and adaptation to one's own advantage right up to the last minute. Among other things, there are differences of positions on the mechanisms for measuring, "reporting", verification and sanctions, on the importance of the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities in emissions starting from the start of industrialization and on the relative quantifications, as well as on financing to support the capacities of developing countries. On these issues, alliances, distinctions and often instrumental contrasts are intertwined with respect to specific objectives.
The alignments in the field are increasingly articulated in the concrete negotiating behaviours. The historically industrialized countries have the EU at the forefront with its role as "lead by example", which has been pursuing a transition towards a low-carbon economy for some time and which is more pressing for ambitious and binding objectives. It expects, by 2030, to reduce emissions by 40%, increase the share of renewables in its energy production to 27% and increase energy efficiency by the same amount.
The United States and other OECD countries with similar, but not identical positions have joined it with a propulsive approach. Facing them is the Group of 77 (the traditional grouping of developing countries) and China which has constantly supported their theses in favor of a differentiation of commitments that takes into account historical responsibilities in pollution and the need of countries eager to industrialize to contain the limitations that those who preceded them on the path of development had not known, unless there are adequate compensations in terms of financing, "capacity building" and technology transfers.
But the new Chinese awareness and the commitments undertaken by China with the USA and the EU, the result of the changes in energy policy initiated within it, now lead it to have a constructive impact on the behavior of other emerging economies. Pressing on them and on countries with mature economies for decisive, timely and binding emission reduction policies are the countries that among the 77 are most exposed to climate change, such as small island states and less advanced countries, above all in Africa but also in the South Asia.
Their negotiating weight is limited but they find support in the more advanced countries thus disarticulate the field of the 77 in which in any case they identify themselves in asking for an increase in the financial commitments to be paid by the richest. The countries most dependent on the production and export of hydrocarbons have a dilatory attitude, accentuating differences when possible, and therefore in particular Russia and the members of OPEC, even if several of these, above all in the Gulf area, have launched important programs of development of renewables.
THE FINANCIAL ASPECT
The success of the conference will depend on the extent to which a balance is struck between the many and varied needs, among which financial aspects may be decisive. In the face of the developing countries which in the negotiations often make instrumental requests in order to make the commitments of the countries with greater contributory capacities more stringent and broader, and in the context of the prospect of a fund for interventions of 100 billion dollars a year as a gift and subsidized credit starting from 2020 to be reached progressively over the next five years, the United States has already declared commitments for 3 billion dollars, China for the same amount, Germany for 4 billion euros, France, strongly committed to the success of the Conference, for 5 billion in grants and credit and the United Kingdom for 5,4 billion, while Italy has for now settled on a sum of 250 million of which a significant increase must be expected.
On the other hand, it is essential for the future of humanity that the outcome of the Conference determines an effective and sustainable path towards objectives that are now largely shared, given that all the effects that climate change entails for global security, for the conditions of life of the populations and for the migratory phenomena on which they are destined to have, in the absence of appropriate remedies, a growing influence.
